Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress

Arizona Wildcats: luck and expected wins

Arizona is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 57th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Arizona wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Northern Arizona	W 35–7	100%	0
Week 2	@ BYU	L 17–28	18%	−18
Week 3	vs Northern Illinois	W 42–17	86%	+14
Week 4	@ Washington State	W 34–24	73%	+27

Wk 1 0 vs NAU

Wk 2 −18 @ BYU

Wk 3 +14 vs NIU

Wk 4 +27 @ WSU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Arizona win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Cincinnati	Arizona by 5.4	63%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at West Virginia	Arizona by 5.3	63%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Iowa State	Arizona by 0.9	52%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Texas Tech	Texas Tech by 9.5	28%
Week 10 · Nov 6	vs TCU	Arizona by 4.9	62%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Utah	Utah by 11.9	24%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Kansas State	Kansas State by 4.5	40%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Arizona State	Arizona by 6.1	64%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Arizona’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.09	−1.5
3rd & 4th downs	+0.06	+9.3
Pre-snap flags	−0.05	+0.2
Kicks	−0.06	+7.6

Luckiest wins

Wins Arizona takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	@ Arizona State	W 23–7	63%	+37
2025 Week 12	@ Cincinnati	W 30–24	70%	+30
2026 Week 4	@ Washington State	W 34–24	73%	+27
2025 Week 11	vs Kansas	W 24–20	74%	+26
2025 Week 3	vs Kansas State	W 23–17	85%	+15

Unluckiest losses

Losses Arizona would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 7	vs BYU	L 27–33	37%	−37
2025 Week 5	@ Iowa State	L 14–39	23%	−23
2025 Week 8	@ Houston	L 28–31	20%	−20
2026 Week 2	@ BYU	L 17–28	18%	−18
2026 Trust & Will Holiday Bowl	vs SMU	L 19–24	16%	−16

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	9–3	8.6	+0.4	3–2	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Hawai'i	W 40–6	90%	+10
Week 2	vs Weber State	W 48–3	100%	0
Week 3	vs Kansas State	W 23–17	85%	+15
Week 5	@ Iowa State	L 14–39	23%	−23
Week 6	vs Oklahoma State	W 41–13	100%	0
Week 7	vs BYU	L 27–33	37%	−37
Week 8	@ Houston	L 28–31	20%	−20
Week 10	@ Colorado	W 52–17	98%	+2
Week 11	vs Kansas	W 24–20	74%	+26
Week 12	@ Cincinnati	W 30–24	70%	+30
Week 13	vs Baylor	W 41–17	96%	+4
Week 14	@ Arizona State	W 23–7	63%	+37
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl	vs SMU	L 19–24	16%	−16