luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2026 college football season · August 29, 2026–September 7, 2026

Week 1 2026: upsets, and who deserved to win

10 upsets in Week 1 2026. The biggest: Massachusetts beat Rutgers 37–21 as 3% underdogs, and deserved it. 4 of 99 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Colorado beat Georgia Tech 14–13 in a game it wins 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 1 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 7 of 10 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Massachusetts 37–21 @ Rutgers 3% 74% Deserved
The Citadel 43–41 @ Charlotte 9% 23% Lucky
Idaho State 29–17 @ Utah State 16% 16% Lucky
Tulsa 24–10 vs Oklahoma State 19% 84% Deserved
North Carolina 15–10 vs TCU 31% 75% Deserved
Colorado 14–13 @ Georgia Tech 34% 19% Lucky
Memphis 27–21 @ UNLV 39% 84% Deserved
Nevada 49–14 vs Western Kentucky 46% 100% Deserved
San José State 27–21 @ Eastern Michigan 46% 65% Deserved
Tarleton State 20–13 @ Bowling Green 46% 77% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 1 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 South Alabama W 39–14 vs SE Louisiana 12% +88
2 Colorado W 14–13 @ Georgia Tech 19% +81
3 West Virginia W 31–24 vs Coastal Carolina 42% +58
4 South Florida W 19–9 vs Florida International 44% +56
5 Michigan State W 30–20 vs Toledo 49% +51
6 Troy W 24–21 vs Sam Houston 55% +45
7 Ole Miss W 41–38 vs Louisville 57% +43
8 San José State W 27–21 @ Eastern Michigan 65% +35
9 Massachusetts W 37–21 @ Rutgers 74% +26
10 North Carolina W 15–10 vs TCU 75% +25
11 Colorado State W 35–13 vs Wyoming 75% +25
12 Notre Dame W 41–13 vs Wisconsin 79% +21
13 San Diego State W 53–20 vs Portland State 80% +20
14 Florida State W 34–17 vs New Mexico State 82% +18
15 Buffalo W 21–17 vs UAlbany 82% +18
16 Auburn W 17–16 vs Baylor 82% +18
17 Tulsa W 24–10 vs Oklahoma State 84% +17
18 Memphis W 27–21 @ UNLV 84% +16
19 Michigan W 13–12 vs Western Michigan 86% +14
20 Memphis W 42–24 vs Arkansas State 88% +12
21 James Madison W 20–13 vs Liberty 89% +11
22 Houston W 33–20 vs Oregon State 89% +11
23 Washington W 24–10 vs Washington State 89% +11
24 Cincinnati W 34–15 vs Boston College 89% +11
25 Oregon W 34–27 vs Boise State 91% +9
26 Wake Forest W 38–16 vs Akron 92% +8
27 Indiana W 52–16 vs North Texas 92% +8
28 Nebraska W 49–21 vs Ohio 93% +7
29 UNLV W 21–6 @ Hawai'i 95% +5
30 Illinois W 42–23 vs UAB 95% +5
31 Middle Tennessee W 38–14 vs Murray State 95% +5
32 Temple W 38–14 vs Rhode Island 95% +5
33 Vanderbilt W 28–9 vs Austin Peay 95% +5
34 Pittsburgh W 59–14 vs Miami (OH) 96% +4
35 Eastern Michigan W 28–17 vs Sacramento State 96% +4
36 New Mexico State W 51–14 vs Mercyhurst 96% +4
37 UCLA W 45–24 @ California 96% +4
38 North Dakota State W 33–7 vs Jacksonville State 97% +3
39 SMU W 27–24 @ Florida State 97% +3
40 Navy W 42–15 vs Towson 97% +3
41 Northwestern W 34–18 vs South Dakota State 97% +3
42 Duke W 17–3 vs Tulane 97% +3
43 Stanford W 37–27 vs Hawai'i 97% +3
44 Virginia W 34–8 vs NC State 98% +2
45 Rice W 31–3 vs Houston Christian 98% +2
46 Arkansas W 31–14 vs North Alabama 98% +2
47 Texas W 59–7 vs Texas State 98% +2
48 USC W 42–26 vs San José State 98% +2
49 Old Dominion W 31–10 vs Norfolk State 98% +2
50 Alabama W 48–10 vs East Carolina 99% +1
51 Iowa State W 38–10 vs Southeast Missouri State 99% +1
52 UTSA W 45–16 vs UT Rio Grande Valley 99% +1
53 Purdue W 44–19 vs Indiana State 99% +1
54 USC W 39–0 vs Fresno State 99% +1
55 Oklahoma W 51–0 vs UTEP 99% +1
56 Jacksonville State W 49–7 vs Eastern Kentucky 99% +1
57 Florida W 66–21 vs Florida Atlantic 99% +1
58 New Mexico W 38–7 vs Central Michigan 99% +1
59 UConn W 56–7 vs Lafayette 100% 0
60 Tennessee W 56–9 vs Furman 100% 0
61 North Dakota State W 38–0 vs Fordham 100% 0
62 Louisiana W 38–7 vs Lamar 100% 0
63 Sacramento State W 52–0 vs Mississippi Valley State 100% 0
64 LSU W 51–10 vs Clemson 100% 0
65 Texas Tech W 33–10 vs Abilene Christian 100% 0
66 Miami W 45–6 @ Stanford 100% 0
67 Texas A&M W 50–0 vs Missouri State 100% 0
68 Delaware W 42–7 vs Merrimack 100% 0
69 South Carolina W 57–0 vs Kent State 100% 0
70 Kentucky W 45–13 vs Youngstown State 100% 0
71 UCF W 73–6 vs Bethune-Cookman 100% 0
72 Kennesaw State W 47–0 vs West Georgia 100% 0
73 Missouri W 54–14 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff 100% 0
74 Minnesota W 59–7 vs Eastern Illinois 100% 0
75 Utah W 66–14 vs Idaho 100% 0
76 Georgia State W 59–10 vs North Carolina A&T 100% 0
77 Kansas W 51–6 vs Long Island University 100% 0
78 Syracuse W 66–3 vs New Hampshire 100% 0
79 Army W 59–3 vs Bryant 100% 0
80 Ohio State W 56–3 vs Ball State 100% 0
81 Air Force W 34–0 vs Duquesne 100% 0
82 Georgia W 63–3 vs Tennessee State 100% 0
83 Penn State W 45–0 vs Marshall 100% 0
84 App State W 55–3 vs Maine 100% 0
85 Iowa W 40–0 vs Northern Illinois 100% 0
86 Southern Miss W 49–3 vs Alcorn State 100% 0
87 Kansas State W 71–3 vs Nicholls 100% 0
88 Georgia Southern W 31–0 vs Charleston Southern 100% 0
89 Mississippi State W 62–13 vs UL Monroe 100% 0
90 Virginia Tech W 73–3 vs VMI 100% 0
91 Louisiana Tech W 80–6 vs Northwestern State 100% 0
92 BYU W 63–7 vs Utah Tech 100% 0
93 Maryland W 62–0 vs Hampton 100% 0
94 Arizona W 35–7 vs Northern Arizona 100% 0
95 Arizona State W 70–7 vs Morgan State 100% 0
96 Nevada W 49–14 vs Western Kentucky 100% 0
97 Ball State L 3–56 @ Ohio State 0% 0
98 Marshall L 0–45 @ Penn State 0% 0
99 Northern Illinois L 0–40 @ Iowa 0% 0
100 UL Monroe L 13–62 @ Mississippi State 0% 0
101 Western Kentucky L 14–49 @ Nevada 0% 0
102 Kent State L 0–57 @ South Carolina 0% 0
103 Missouri State L 0–50 @ Texas A&M 0% 0
104 Stanford L 6–45 vs Miami 0% 0
105 Clemson L 10–51 @ LSU 0% 0
106 Central Michigan L 7–38 @ New Mexico 1% −1
107 Florida Atlantic L 21–66 @ Florida 1% −1
108 UTEP L 0–51 @ Oklahoma 1% −1
109 Fresno State L 0–39 @ USC 1% −1
110 East Carolina L 10–48 @ Alabama 1% −1
111 San José State L 26–42 @ USC 2% −2
112 Texas State L 7–59 @ Texas 2% −2
113 NC State L 8–34 @ Virginia 2% −2
114 Hawai'i L 27–37 @ Stanford 3% −3
115 Tulane L 3–17 @ Duke 3% −3
116 Florida State L 24–27 vs SMU 3% −3
117 Jacksonville State L 7–33 @ North Dakota State 3% −3
118 California L 24–45 vs UCLA 4% −4
119 Sacramento State L 17–28 @ Eastern Michigan 4% −4
120 Miami (OH) L 14–59 @ Pittsburgh 4% −4
121 UAB L 23–42 @ Illinois 5% −5
122 Hawai'i L 6–21 vs UNLV 5% −5
123 Ohio L 21–49 @ Nebraska 7% −7
124 North Texas L 16–52 @ Indiana 8% −8
125 Akron L 16–38 @ Wake Forest 8% −8
126 Boise State L 27–34 @ Oregon 9% −9
127 Boston College L 15–34 @ Cincinnati 11% −11
128 Washington State L 10–24 @ Washington 11% −11
129 Oregon State L 20–33 @ Houston 11% −11
130 Liberty L 13–20 @ James Madison 11% −11
131 Arkansas State L 24–42 @ Memphis 12% −12
132 Western Michigan L 12–13 @ Michigan 14% −14
133 UNLV L 21–27 vs Memphis 16% −16
134 Oklahoma State L 10–24 @ Tulsa 17% −17
135 Baylor L 16–17 vs Auburn 18% −18
136 New Mexico State L 17–34 @ Florida State 18% −18
137 Wisconsin L 13–41 vs Notre Dame 21% −21
138 Bowling Green L 13–20 vs Tarleton State 23% −23
139 Wyoming L 13–35 @ Colorado State 25% −25
140 TCU L 10–15 vs North Carolina 25% −25
141 Rutgers L 21–37 vs Massachusetts 26% −26
142 Eastern Michigan L 21–27 vs San José State 35% −35
143 Louisville L 38–41 vs Ole Miss 43% −43
144 Sam Houston L 21–24 @ Troy 45% −45
145 Toledo L 20–30 @ Michigan State 51% −51
146 Florida International L 9–19 @ South Florida 56% −56
147 Coastal Carolina L 24–31 @ West Virginia 58% −58
148 Charlotte L 41–43 vs The Citadel 77% −77
149 Georgia Tech L 13–14 vs Colorado 81% −81
150 Utah State L 17–29 vs Idaho State 84% −84