Week 1 2026 · August 29, 2026
NC State at Virginia, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Virginia beat NC State 34–8, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Virginia was a 60% favorite.
Final
 NC State Wolfpack | 8 |
|---|---|
 Virginia Cavaliers | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Virginia about even · −2 NC State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. NC State wins 0, Virginia wins 10.
- 1 NCSU 27 UVA 31
- 2 NCSU 17 UVA 26
- 3 NCSU 10 UVA 24
- 4 NCSU 3 UVA 20
- 5 NCSU 7 UVA 27
- 6 NCSU 17 UVA 40
- 7 NCSU 3 UVA 30
- 8 NCSU 0 UVA 31
- 9 NCSU 3 UVA 38
- 10 NCSU 3 UVA 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
NC State wins 2% of them, Virginia 98%. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 26.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| NC State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| NC State by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| NC State by 1–8 | 1.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Virginia by 1–8 | 6.3% |
| Virginia by 9–16 | 14.4% |
| Virginia by 17+ | 77.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Bettridge, 47 yds made · 61% expected
- W. Bettridge, 42 yds made · 70% expected
Penalties: NC State 2 for 13 yards, Virginia 5 for 51 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:10 | Holding on NC State, 8 yards | +4% UVA +2.0 pts |
| Q2 5:42 | Pass Interference on Virginia, 15 yards | +1% NCSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:35 | False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UVA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:39 | Delay of Game on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NCSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:18 | Personal Foul on Virginia, 11 yards | 0% NCSU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:08 | Personal Foul on Virginia, 15 yards | 0% NCSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:13 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NCSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Virginia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:47 | NC State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +2% UVA | NCSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:46 | Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% NCSU | UVA: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:10 | Holding on NC State, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +4% UVA | UVA: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 5:11 | W. Bettridge made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 4 of 9 from 45+ before | +5% NCSU | UVA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 0:51 | NC State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +2% UVA | NCSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 10:48 | NC State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +1% NCSU | NCSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 3:35 | NC State fumbled and Virginia recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% UVA | NCSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 4:59 | NC State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +2% NCSU | NCSU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
NC State 0% · Virginia 100%
- Final margin
- Virginia by 26
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for NC State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Virginia by 26.6
- Replay with same day's form
- NC State 2% · Virginia 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
NC State · 
Virginia
More from Week 1 2026
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh PITT 59–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- UCLA at California UCLA 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- SMU at Florida State SMU 27–24 · replay 97% for the winner
- Tulane at Duke DUKE 17–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Stanford STAN 37–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- Clemson at LSU LSU 51–10 · replay 100% for the winner