ACC · 2026 season, in progress
Virginia Cavaliers: luck and expected wins
Virginia is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.0 wins. Luck cost 0.0: the 59th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Virginia wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs NC State | W 34–8 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 2 | vs Norfolk State | W 59–3 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 3 | vs West Virginia | L 27–38 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 4 | vs Delaware | W 42–3 | 100% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Virginia win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Florida State |  Virginia by 4.4 | 61% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Syracuse | Virginia by 16.7 | 85% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at SMU |  SMU by 0.5 | 49% |
| Week 8 · Oct 23 | vs Duke | Virginia by 3.5 | 59% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at Wake Forest | Virginia by 3.5 | 58% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs California | Virginia by 19.2 | 87% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs North Carolina | Virginia by 13.9 | 79% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Virginia Tech | Virginia by 5.0 | 62% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Virginia’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.08 | +3.8 |
| Pre-snap flags | +0.02 | −1.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.12 | +3.6 |
| Kicks | −0.18 | −1.5 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Virginia takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 9 | @ North Carolina | W 17–16 | 15% | +85 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Louisville | W 30–27 | 19% | +81 |
| 2025 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl | vs Missouri | W 13–7 | 22% | +78 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Washington State | W 22–20 | 29% | +71 |
| 2025 Week 10 | @ California | W 31–21 | 54% | +46 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Virginia would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 15 | vs Duke | L 20–27 | 86% | −86 |
| 2025 Week 11 | vs Wake Forest | L 9–16 | 78% | −78 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ NC State | L 31–35 | 16% | −16 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs West Virginia | L 27–38 | 7% | −7 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10–3 | 8.7 | +1.3 | 4–3 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Coastal Carolina | W 48–7 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 2 | @ NC State | L 31–35 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 3 | vs William & Mary | W 55–16 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | vs Stanford | W 48–20 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 5 | vs Florida State | W 46–38 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 6 | @ Louisville | W 30–27 | 19% | +81 |
| Week 8 | vs Washington State | W 22–20 | 29% | +71 |
| Week 9 | @ North Carolina | W 17–16 | 15% | +85 |
| Week 10 | @ California | W 31–21 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 11 | vs Wake Forest | L 9–16 | 78% | −78 |
| Week 12 | @ Duke | W 34–17 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 14 | vs Virginia Tech | W 27–7 | 99% | +2 |
| Week 15 | vs Duke | L 20–27 | 86% | −86 |
| TaxSlayer Gator Bowl | vs Missouri | W 13–7 | 22% | +78 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- ACC teams by luck
- ACC:
Boston College, 
California, 
Clemson, 
Duke, 
Florida State, 
Georgia Tech, 
Louisville, 
Miami, 
NC State, 
North Carolina, 
Pittsburgh, SMU, 
Stanford, 
Syracuse, 
Virginia Tech, 
Wake Forest
How many wins does Virginia have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.0 wins.
Was Virginia lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: 0.0 wins of luck, the 59th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Virginia’s luckiest season?
2025: 10–3 from play worth 8.7 wins, +1.3 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–1 from play worth 3.0 (0.0).