ACC · 2026 season, in progress

NC State Wolfpack: luck and expected wins

NC State is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 58th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often NC State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Virginia	L 8–34	2%	−2
Week 2	vs Richmond	W 73–0	100%	0
Week 3	@ Vanderbilt	L 31–35	23%	−23
Week 4	vs App State	W 41–31	53%	+47

Wk 1 −2 @ UVA

Wk 2 0 vs RICH

Wk 3 −23 @ VAN

Wk 4 +47 vs APP

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	NC State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Louisville	Louisville by 2.1	45%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Wake Forest	NC State by 2.7	57%
Week 8 · Oct 23	at Stanford	NC State by 8.4	70%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs California	NC State by 12.1	77%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Duke	Duke by 3.5	42%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Syracuse	NC State by 9.6	72%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Florida State	Florida State by 2.7	44%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at North Carolina	NC State by 0.6	51%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in NC State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.20	+21.8
Kicks	+0.07	+1.3
Pre-snap flags	+0.02	+1.6

Luckiest wins

Wins NC State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 13	vs Florida State	W 21–11	18%	+82
2025 Week 10	vs Georgia Tech	W 48–36	35%	+65
2025 Week 3	@ Wake Forest	W 34–24	40%	+60
2026 Week 4	vs App State	W 41–31	53%	+47
2025 Week 1	vs East Carolina	W 24–17	81%	+19

Unluckiest losses

Losses NC State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 4	@ Duke	L 33–45	65%	−65
2025 Week 5	vs Virginia Tech	L 21–23	55%	−55
2026 Week 3	@ Vanderbilt	L 31–35	23%	−23
2025 Week 9	@ Pittsburgh	L 34–53	22%	−22
2025 Week 7	@ Notre Dame	L 7–36	4%	−4

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	7–5	6.0	+1.0	2–1	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs East Carolina	W 24–17	81%	+19
Week 2	vs Virginia	W 35–31	84%	+16
Week 3	@ Wake Forest	W 34–24	40%	+60
Week 4	@ Duke	L 33–45	65%	−65
Week 5	vs Virginia Tech	L 21–23	55%	−55
Week 6	vs Campbell	W 56–10	100%	0
Week 7	@ Notre Dame	L 7–36	4%	−4
Week 9	@ Pittsburgh	L 34–53	22%	−22
Week 10	vs Georgia Tech	W 48–36	35%	+65
Week 12	@ Miami	L 7–41	0%	0
Week 13	vs Florida State	W 21–11	18%	+82
Week 14	vs North Carolina	W 42–19	97%	+3
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl	vs Memphis	W 31–7	98%	+2