luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

NC State at Pittsburgh, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Pittsburgh beat NC State 53–34, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Pittsburgh was a 61% favorite.

Final

NC State Wolfpack 34
Pittsburgh Panthers 53

October 25, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Pittsburgh −4.5

Luck index +22 Pittsburgh about even · −22 NC State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. NC State wins 2, Pittsburgh wins 8.

  1. 1 NCSU 38 PITT 17
  2. 2 NCSU 34 PITT 28
  3. 3 NCSU 27 PITT 30
  4. 4 NCSU 24 PITT 30
  5. 5 NCSU 17 PITT 27
  6. 6 NCSU 7 PITT 20
  7. 7 NCSU 38 PITT 55
  8. 8 NCSU 17 PITT 39
  9. 9 NCSU 27 PITT 55
  10. 10 NCSU 13 PITT 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

NC State wins 22% of them, Pittsburgh 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Pittsburgh by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
NC State by 17+5.2%
NC State by 9–166.6%
NC State by 1–89.6%
Level after regulation2.1%
Pittsburgh by 1–820.0%
Pittsburgh by 9–1615.8%
Pittsburgh by 17+40.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.4 points to Pittsburgh: the final margin was Pittsburgh by 19, without the luck Pittsburgh by 3.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Butkowski, 34 yds made · 84% expected
  • T. Butkowski, 41 yds made · 73% expected
  • T. Butkowski, 35 yds made · 83% expected
  • T. Butkowski, 43 yds made · 70% expected
  • T. Butkowski, 48 yds missed · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: NC State 8 for 82 yards, Pittsburgh 4 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:37 Illegal Substitution on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PITT +1.5 pts
Q1 7:30 Pass Interference on NC State, 15 yards +1% PITT +0.5 pts
Q1 2:05 False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NCSU +0.7 pts
Q1 1:05 Face Mask on NC State, 15 yards +2% PITT +0.8 pts
Q2 14:36 Holding on Pittsburgh, 6 yards +3% NCSU +1.2 pts
Q3 14:19 Delay of Game on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PITT +1.4 pts
Q3 13:08 Pass Interference on NC State, 15 yards +1% PITT +1.0 pts
Q3 7:53 Illegal Motion on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NCSU +0.4 pts
Q3 6:56 Block Below the Waist on Pittsburgh, 15 yards 0% NCSU +0.9 pts
Q3 4:14 Pass Interference on NC State, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% PITT +4.2 pts
Q4 7:08 Holding on NC State, 7 yards 0% PITT +1.7 pts
Q4 6:04 False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +1.4 pts

When it happened

Pittsburgh’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Pittsburgh was ahead in it, below while NC State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:14 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% PITT PITT: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:47 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% PITT PITT: Field goal
3 Q2 14:36 Holding on Pittsburgh, 6 yardsJudgment calls +3% NCSU NCSU: Punt
4 Q2 12:29 NC State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +3% NCSU NCSU: Punt
5 Q2 10:41 NC State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +3% PITT NCSU: Punt
6 Q2 9:40 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% PITT PITT: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:20 Pittsburgh converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +4% PITT PITT: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:13 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +3% PITT PITT: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

NC State 30% · Pittsburgh 70%

Final margin
Pittsburgh by 19
Luck in points
15.4 for Pittsburgh
Luck-adjusted margin
Pittsburgh by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
NC State 22% · Pittsburgh 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · NC State · Pittsburgh

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Every week 9 game, 2025