Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Auburn at Arkansas, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Auburn beat Arkansas 33–24, but the replays lean toward Arkansas: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff Arkansas was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:48 left): Return touchdown by Arkansas, worth 22 points of win probability to Arkansas.
Final
 Auburn Tigers | 33 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 Auburn very lucky · −70 Arkansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Auburn wins 3, Arkansas wins 7.
- 1 AUB 33 ARK 14
- 2 AUB 17 ARK 7
- 3 AUB 24 ARK 21
- 4 AUB 31 ARK 34
- 5 AUB 28 ARK 35
- 6 AUB 14 ARK 24
- 7 AUB 20 ARK 34
- 8 AUB 13 ARK 31
- 9 AUB 14 ARK 38
- 10 AUB 7 ARK 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Auburn wins 30% of them, Arkansas 70%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Auburn by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Auburn by 17+ | 5.9% |
| Auburn by 9–16 | 7.4% |
| Auburn by 1–8 | 14.6% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 22.0% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Arkansas by 17+ | 26.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. McPherson, 36 yds made · 80% expected
- A. McPherson, 23 yds made · 94% expected
- A. McPherson, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- S. Starzyk, 27 yds made · 90% expected
- A. McPherson, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- A. McPherson, 47 yds made · 61% expected
- A. McPherson, 37 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: Auburn 4 for 35 yards, Arkansas 3 for 12 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:32 | Face Mask on Auburn, 15 yards | +2% ARK +1.2 pts |
| Q1 11:24 | Offside on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% AUB +2.2 pts |
| Q2 0:13 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | +2% ARK +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:03 | False Start on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AUB +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:14 | Delay of Game on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARK +0.3 pts |
| Q4 12:11 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARK +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:15 | Personal Foul on Arkansas, 2 yards | 0% AUB +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:50 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +4% AUB | ARK: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:24 | Offside on Arkansas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% AUB | AUB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:23 | Auburn converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% AUB | AUB: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:48 | Return touchdown by ArkansasSpecial teams | +22% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 9:03 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedFalse Start on Arkansas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% AUB | ARK: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 12:43 | Auburn was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% ARK | AUB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 11:05 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +7% ARK | ARK: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 6:59 | Auburn was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% ARK | AUB: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Auburn 48% · Arkansas 52%
- Final margin
- Auburn by 9
- Luck in points
- 9.5 for Auburn
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Auburn 30% · Arkansas 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Auburn · 
Arkansas
More from Week 9 2025
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- Texas at Mississippi State TEX 45–38 · replay 39% for the winner
- Missouri at Vanderbilt VAN 17–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- Tennessee at Kentucky TENN 56–34 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texas A&M at LSU TA&M 49–25 · replay 97% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner