Learn · 2,002 games, 2019–2026
How lucky is the NFL?
Luck decides more than 1 in 5 NFL games: in 22% of them the winner played worse than the team it beat, going by 2,002 games since 2019, each replayed 4,000 times with the way both teams actually played. Over a season, about 38% of the differences between teams’ records is luck.
- 22%
- of games won by the team that played worse
- 38%
- of the spread in season records is luck
- ±1.9
- wins: luck in a typical team’s season
- 35%
- of that luck from kicks
How luck is calculated, in short
Every game replayed 4,000 times from its own plays. Luck is the result minus the share of replays a team wins. Show the 3 steps and an example Hide
- Reshuffle the game and replay it. We take every snap each team ran that day and deal them out again at random into new drives, matched by down and distance: on 3rd and 7, a team gets one of its own 3rd-and-long plays from that game. A play can come up twice in one replay, or not at all. Each drive runs until a touchdown, a field goal try, a punt, a turnover or a failed 4th down, over as many possessions as the real game had. Then we see who scored more, and do it all 4,000 times.
Kept as it happened
- Every snap’s yards: runs, catches, incompletions, sacks, scrambles, and the flags on them
- How often each team fumbled, and how many interception-worthy throws its quarterback made
- The number of possessions
Drawn again
- The order the plays come in
- Whether an interception-worthy throw is caught, at the rate that defense catches them
- Who recovers a fumble (the fumbling team keeps 52%)
- Whether a field goal is good, at the league rate for its distance
No matchup is modeled on its own: there are no player ratings, no pass rush against the quarterback, no receiver against his cornerback. They don’t need to be. Every snap in the deck was played against that opponent that day, so how the pass rush fared against that quarterback, the receivers against those defenders and the line against that front is already in the plays: in the sacks, the scrambles, the completions and the stuffed runs. Where a team ran few plays of a kind that day, some draws come from its earlier games that season. Fourth downs follow one rule for everyone: kick when in range, go for it on short yardage in the other team’s half, and whenever a touchdown is needed late.
- Compare it with the result. The share of replays a team wins is what its play was worth. Luck is the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss) minus that share. Times 100 it is a game’s luck index, from −100 to +100; added up over a season it is luck in wins.
- Find where it came from. This part is not a replay. Every chance play of the real game is scored on its own: what happened, minus how often it happens for that player in that spot, times what was at stake. Here each player’s own record counts: a kicker’s from that distance, in that wind and cold; a receiver’s drop rate; how often that defense catches interception-worthy throws; how often that offense and that defense convert on 3rd and 4th down. Judgment calls count too, at half, each weighted by how often the flagged player draws one. It doesn’t change the replay; it shows where the luck came from.
An example: Bears 24, Packers 22 Week 18 2024
Who wins the 4,000 replays
- The game
- The Packers lost 24–22, but with both teams’ plays dealt out again, they won 99% of the replays. Packers: 100 × (0 − 0.99) = −99 Bears: 100 × (1 − 0.01) = +99
- One play, scored on its own
- C. Santos made a 51-yard field goal. Going by his record, the distance and the conditions, he makes that kick 62% of the time. From that distance a make is worth 4.5 points more than a miss, on average: the 3 points, plus the field position, since after a miss the other team takes over at the spot of the kick. Luck is what happened (1 for a make, 0 for a miss) minus the 62%, times those 4.5 points: Bears: (1 − 0.62) × 4.5 = +1.7 points Counted at the moment it came, with 0:02 left in the 4th quarter, that was worth 38% of a win to the Bears.
- The season
- The Packers finished 2024 at 11–6. The replays of those 17 games add up to 12.5 wins. Luck in wins: 11 − 12.5 = −1.5
Each step in full, and how well the numbers hold up: methodology.
How much luck is in one game
Replay a game 4,000 times from its own plays, each team’s snaps resampled into new drives and the kicks, bounces and calls drawn at their usual rates, and count how often each side wins. Across every decided game since 2019:
- 69% deserved: the winner takes 60% or more of the replays
- 16% coin flips: 40–60%
- 15% the winner was outplayed: under 40%, and 5% of all games were outright stolen (under 20%)
The betting favorite, the better team going in, wins 66% of the time. 53% of regular-season games are decided by one score, 8 points or fewer, where a single kick or flag can flip the result; the average game has 4.8 points of luck in it. 2026 so far: 12 of 48 winners played worse than the team they beat. This week’s games · The luckiest wins since 2019
Luck or skill?
Mostly skill, with a large share of luck. Two different measurements agree on how large:
The coin-flip test. If every NFL game were a coin flip, records would still spread out: over 17 games, chance alone moves a team a couple of wins either side of .500. Compare that spread with the one real records show, and the ratio is the share of the variation luck could account for, the method Michael Mauboussin popularised in The Success Equation. On the 2019–2025 regular seasons: 40%.
The replay test. Add up each team’s replay wins over a season and compare them with its real record. The gap is luck, and it accounts for 36% of the variation in wins. Re-rolling only the chance events (kicks, fumble bounces, drops, conversions, judgment calls) and keeping everything else gives 22%; the rest of the luck is in the sequencing, which drives the big plays land on.
How much luck is in a season
A typical team’s record is off by about 1.9 wins from what its play was worth, in a league where records vary by about 3.2 wins. Of 224 team-seasons since 2019, luck moved 65% by a win or more, 29% by two or more and 11% by three or more: enough to make or miss the playoffs. The luckiest: the 2019 Green Bay Packers, 13–3 from play worth 7.9 wins (+5.1). The unluckiest: the 2019 Los Angeles Chargers, 5–11 from play worth 11.0 (−6.0). This season’s luck rankings · Every season, ranked
Where the luck comes from
Split a season’s luck into its kinds, each play weighted by the moment it happened, and see which kinds move records most (each kind’s share of the spread between teams, 2019–2025):
- Kicks 35%
- Fumble bounces 18%
- Injuries 14%
- Judgment calls 13%
- Drops 13%
- 3rd & 4th downs 7%
Kicks come first, because a miss at the end of a close game is worth most of a win; fumble bounces next, because a loose ball is close to a coin flip and often ends a drive. Judgment calls are the flags a crew could throw or not: holding, pass interference, roughing. Every team’s luck by kind, 2026 · Are the calls fair?
Does luck even out?
Not within a season: 17 games are too few. Between seasons it does. A team’s luck one year correlates with the next at 0.18 (192 team-seasons), and records in one-score games at 0.12, next to 0.39 for records overall. Teams that win a lot of close games are rarely good at winning close games; they’re lucky, and they tend to fall back. Who’s due to regress
The playoffs and the Super Bowl
One game, no series, so luck counts in full: 21% of playoff games since 2019 went to the team that played worse. In 3 of the last 7 Super Bowls, the champion won fewer than half of the replays.
| Super Bowl | Champion | Score | Champion wins the replay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl LX (2026) |  Seahawks | 29–13 Patriots | 32% |
| Super Bowl LIX (2025) |  Eagles | 40–22 Chiefs | 85% |
| Super Bowl LVIII (2024) |  Chiefs | 25–22 49ers | 16% |
| Super Bowl LVII (2023) | Chiefs | 38–35 Eagles | 83% |
| Super Bowl LVI (2022) |  Rams | 23–20 Bengals | 47% |
| Super Bowl LV (2021) |  Buccaneers | 31–9 Chiefs | 86% |
| Super Bowl LIV (2020) | Chiefs | 31–20 49ers | 51% |
The NFL next to other sports
By the coin-flip test, basketball is the most skill-driven of the major North American leagues and hockey the most luck-driven, with football and baseball in between (Mauboussin; the same order comes out of betting markets in Lopez, Matthews and Baumer, 2018). Football’s short season does much of the work: 17 games leave far more room for chance than 82 or 162. When other leagues join this site, this page will compare them with the same two tests.
Why football has so much luck
- Few games. 17, against 82 in the NBA and NHL and 162 in baseball. Luck has little time to even out.
- Few scores. A game turns on a handful of possessions, so one bounce weighs a lot.
- An oblong ball. A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it about half the time, and no team is better at it.
- Kicks and flags in close games. 53% of games are one-score games, where a missed kick or a pass interference call decides it.
- Parity. The salary cap and the draft keep teams close, and close teams make more coin flips.
Questions
How lucky is the NFL?
Very, for a major league. In 22% of NFL games since 2019 the winner played worse than the loser (more than 1 in 5), and about 38% of the spread in season records is luck.
How much luck is involved in the NFL?
In a single game: 16% of games are close to a coin flip on the day, and 15% are won by a team that was clearly outplayed. Over a season, luck moves a typical team’s record by about 1.9 wins; for 29% of teams it’s 2 wins or more.
Is football luck or skill?
More skill: about 62% of the differences between records come from how well teams play. But 38% luck is a lot, more than in basketball, and enough to decide playoff spots every year.
How often does the better team win in the NFL?
The team that played better on the day wins about 78% of the time. The betting favorite, the better team going in, wins 66%.
Does luck even out over a season?
Not in 17 games. It does even out from one season to the next: a team’s luck one year correlates with the next at 0.18 (192 team-seasons), and one-score records at 0.12. That’s why lucky teams tend to fall back.
Does the best team always win the Super Bowl?
Often not. In 3 of the last 7 Super Bowls, the champion won fewer than half of the replays. The 2025 season’s, Super Bowl LX (2026), went to the Seahawks in a game they win 32% of the time.
Which sport has the most luck?
Among the major North American leagues, hockey has the most and basketball the least. Football sits in between with baseball; its luck comes mostly from the short season, since 17 games leave little room for luck to even out.
Is football random?
No, but it’s close enough to feel that way: the better team on the day wins 78% of NFL games, the betting favorite 66%. Skill decides most results; luck decides the close ones, and 53% of games are close.
Where NFL luck comes from, 2026 · Luck rankings 2026 · Deserve-to-win meter · Proof the luck model is right · Does momentum exist? · Methodology