luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

All-time · since 2019

The unluckiest losses since 2019

The unluckiest loss since 2019: the Packers lost 21–23 to the Commanders (2022, Week 7), a game they win 100% of the time when only the kicks, fumble bounces, drops, conversions and referee calls are re-rolled. The Packers lost it to the bounces, not the play.

Ranked by the loser’s coin-flip replay: everything else about the game is kept, only the chance events are redrawn. The last column is the full replay with the same day’s form, which also asks whether the loser played well enough. Luckiest wins ranks by that one.

#GameWhenLoser wins, coin-flips re-rolledLoser wins the replay
1 Commanders 23, Packers 21 2022 Week 7 · Oct 23, 2022 100%92%
2 Panthers 10, Saints 7 2022 Week 18 · Jan 8, 2023 100%93%
3 Bears 25, Raiders 24 2025 Week 4 · Sep 28, 2025 98%82%
4 Lions 31, Bears 30 2022 Week 10 · Nov 13, 2022 98%43%
5 Texans 20, Chiefs 10 2025 Week 14 · Dec 7, 2025 97%79%
6 Rams 21, 49ers 20 2023 Week 18 · Jan 7, 2024 96%56%
7 Browns 39, Colts 38 2023 Week 7 · Oct 22, 2023 96%90%
8 Commanders 21, Giants 18 2024 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2024 96%11%
9 Packers 23, Chargers 20 2023 Week 11 · Nov 19, 2023 96%45%
10 Cowboys 40, Giants 37 2025 Week 2 · Sep 14, 2025 96%88%
11 Seahawks 38, Rams 37 2025 Week 16 · Dec 18, 2025 95%83%
12 Chiefs 19, Raiders 17 2024 Week 13 · Nov 29, 2024 95%48%
13 Seahawks 28, 49ers 21 2021 Week 4 · Oct 3, 2021 94%91%
14 49ers 26, Rams 23 2025 Week 5 · Oct 2, 2025 94%74%
15 Raiders 35, Chargers 32 2021 Week 18 · Jan 9, 2022 94%40%
16 Steelers 26, Browns 22 2023 Week 2 · Sep 18, 2023 93%54%
17 Buccaneers 16, Panthers 14 2025 Week 18 · Jan 3, 2026 93%22%
18 Steelers 17, Ravens 10 2023 Week 5 · Oct 8, 2023 93%35%
19 Steelers 18, Ravens 16 2024 Week 11 · Nov 17, 2024 93%90%
20 Ravens 16, Bears 13 2021 Week 11 · Nov 21, 2021 93%37%
21 Raiders 36, Cowboys 33 2021 Week 12 · Nov 25, 2021 92%61%
22 Texans 29, Colts 27 2024 Week 1 · Sep 8, 2024 92%38%
23 Giants 21, Titans 20 2022 Week 1 · Sep 11, 2022 92%64%
24 Bears 25, Seahawks 24 2021 Week 16 · Dec 26, 2021 92%61%
25 Chiefs 16, Broncos 14 2024 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2024 92%19%
26 Cowboys 31, Chiefs 28 2025 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2025 91%59%
27 Eagles 21, Chiefs 17 2023 Week 11 · Nov 20, 2023 91%55%
28 Texans 13, Jaguars 6 2022 Week 5 · Oct 9, 2022 91%72%
29 Titans 31, Vikings 30 2020 Week 3 · Sep 27, 2020 90%60%
30 Rams 23, Bengals 20 Super Bowl LVI (2022) · Feb 13, 2022 90%53%
31 Steelers 17, Ravens 10 2023 Week 18 · Jan 6, 2024 89%89%
32 Rams 27, 49ers 24 2024 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2024 89%73%
33 Vikings 34, Packers 31 2021 Week 11 · Nov 21, 2021 88%54%
34 Buccaneers 26, Panthers 23 2024 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2024 88%45%
35 Chargers 30, Browns 28 2022 Week 5 · Oct 9, 2022 88%47%
36 Steelers 29, Bears 27 2021 Week 9 · Nov 8, 2021 88%66%
37 Broncos 23, Chargers 20 2019 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2019 88%87%
38 Steelers 26, Ravens 24 2025 Week 18 · Jan 4, 2026 88%64%
39 Jaguars 24, Texans 21 2023 Week 12 · Nov 26, 2023 88%57%
40 Bills 17, Jets 16 2019 Week 1 · Sep 8, 2019 88%9%
41 Broncos 26, Panthers 21 2026 Week 9 · Nov 8, 2026 87%49%
42 Dolphins 26, Raiders 25 2020 Week 16 · Dec 26, 2020 87%92%
43 Chargers 23, Broncos 16 2024 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2024 87%45%
44 Falcons 28, Buccaneers 22 2019 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2019 87%87%
45 Steelers 26, Colts 24 2019 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2019 86%76%
46 Seahawks 21, Bengals 20 2019 Week 1 · Sep 8, 2019 86%60%
47 Bengals 31, Jaguars 27 2025 Week 2 · Sep 14, 2025 86%35%
48 Titans 23, Saints 21 2021 Week 10 · Nov 14, 2021 86%64%
49 Panthers 44, Falcons 38 2024 Week 18 · Jan 5, 2025 86%89%
50 Seahawks 21, Cardinals 20 2023 Week 18 · Jan 7, 2024 86%58%