luckadjusted

All-time · since 2019

The unluckiest losses since 2019

The unluckiest loss since 2019: the Saints lost 7–10 to the Panthers (2022, Week 18), a game they win 99% of the time when only the kicks, fumble bounces, drops, conversions and referee calls are re-rolled. The Saints lost it to the bounces, not the play.

Ranked by the loser’s coin-flip replay: everything else about the game is kept, only the chance events are redrawn. The last column is the full replay with the same day’s form, which also asks whether the loser played well enough. Luckiest wins ranks by that one.

#GameWhenLoser wins, coin-flips re-rolledLoser wins the replay
1 Panthers 10, Saints 7 2022 Week 18 · Jan 8, 2023 99%90%
2 Lions 31, Bears 30 2022 Week 10 · Nov 13, 2022 99%52%
3 Commanders 23, Packers 21 2022 Week 7 · Oct 23, 2022 98%85%
4 Browns 39, Colts 38 2023 Week 7 · Oct 22, 2023 98%89%
5 Cowboys 31, Chiefs 28 2025 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2025 98%39%
6 Rams 21, 49ers 20 2023 Week 18 · Jan 7, 2024 97%42%
7 Steelers 29, Bears 27 2021 Week 9 · Nov 8, 2021 97%66%
8 Bears 25, Raiders 24 2025 Week 4 · Sep 28, 2025 97%82%
9 Chiefs 19, Raiders 17 2024 Week 13 · Nov 29, 2024 97%53%
10 Chiefs 16, Broncos 14 2024 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2024 97%9%
11 Seahawks 38, Rams 37 2025 Week 16 · Dec 18, 2025 97%71%
12 Raiders 35, Chargers 32 2021 Week 18 · Jan 9, 2022 95%42%
13 Seahawks 28, 49ers 21 2021 Week 4 · Oct 3, 2021 95%92%
14 Rams 23, Bengals 20 2021 Super Bowl · Feb 13, 2022 95%51%
15 Steelers 26, Browns 22 2023 Week 2 · Sep 18, 2023 95%51%
16 Vikings 34, Packers 31 2021 Week 11 · Nov 21, 2021 95%56%
17 49ers 26, Rams 23 2025 Week 5 · Oct 2, 2025 94%52%
18 Jaguars 24, Texans 21 2023 Week 12 · Nov 26, 2023 94%38%
19 Falcons 28, Buccaneers 22 2019 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2019 94%86%
20 Steelers 18, Ravens 16 2024 Week 11 · Nov 17, 2024 93%87%
21 Bears 31, Packers 27 2025 Wild Card · Jan 10, 2026 93%53%
22 Rams 19, Jets 9 2024 Week 16 · Dec 22, 2024 92%16%
23 Steelers 17, Ravens 10 2023 Week 5 · Oct 8, 2023 92%56%
24 Cowboys 40, Giants 37 2025 Week 2 · Sep 14, 2025 91%85%
25 Bills 17, Jets 16 2019 Week 1 · Sep 8, 2019 91%11%
26 Titans 32, Texans 27 2024 Week 12 · Nov 24, 2024 91%50%
27 Cardinals 27, Cowboys 17 2025 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2025 91%39%
28 Texans 13, Jaguars 6 2022 Week 5 · Oct 9, 2022 91%69%
29 Steelers 26, Ravens 24 2025 Week 18 · Jan 4, 2026 90%60%
30 Giants 21, Titans 20 2022 Week 1 · Sep 11, 2022 90%53%
31 Chargers 23, Broncos 16 2024 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2024 90%48%
32 Texans 29, Colts 27 2024 Week 1 · Sep 8, 2024 90%54%
33 Panthers 23, Saints 22 2024 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2024 89%77%
34 Texans 13, Jaguars 12 2019 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2019 89%14%
35 Raiders 36, Cowboys 33 2021 Week 12 · Nov 25, 2021 89%63%
36 Jaguars 28, Ravens 27 2022 Week 12 · Nov 27, 2022 89%80%
37 Chargers 30, Browns 28 2022 Week 5 · Oct 9, 2022 89%66%
38 Vikings 27, Lions 24 2025 Week 9 · Nov 2, 2025 88%24%
39 Patriots 25, Texans 22 2021 Week 5 · Oct 10, 2021 88%24%
40 Texans 27, Raiders 24 2019 Week 8 · Oct 27, 2019 88%57%
41 Broncos 23, Chargers 20 2019 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2019 88%86%
42 Commanders 24, Eagles 17 2025 Week 18 · Jan 4, 2026 87%61%
43 Packers 23, Chargers 20 2023 Week 11 · Nov 19, 2023 87%67%
44 Jaguars 31, Chiefs 28 2025 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2025 87%74%
45 Commanders 21, Giants 18 2024 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2024 87%21%
46 Ravens 16, Bears 13 2021 Week 11 · Nov 21, 2021 87%37%
47 Broncos 16, Raiders 15 2019 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2019 86%87%
48 Vikings 31, Packers 29 2024 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2024 86%28%
49 Buccaneers 16, Panthers 14 2025 Week 18 · Jan 3, 2026 86%21%
50 Chargers 29, Dolphins 27 2025 Week 6 · Oct 12, 2025 86%47%