Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Packers at Vikings, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Packers 34–31, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:55 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 6, worth 15 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 31 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Vikings lucky · −54 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 5, Vikings win 5.
- 1 GB 34 MIN 13
- 2 GB 30 MIN 17
- 3 GB 21 MIN 13
- 4 GB 21 MIN 17
- 5 GB 16 MIN 14
- 6 GB 21 MIN 23
- 7 GB 28 MIN 33
- 8 GB 7 MIN 16
- 9 GB 7 MIN 20
- 10 GB 10 MIN 31
Your call
Did the Vikings earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 54% of them, Vikings 46%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 11.7% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 14.0% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 23.3% |
| Level after regulation | 6.3% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 13.1% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 9.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Crosby, 54 yds made · 71% expected
- G. Joseph, 51 yds made · 71% expected
- M. Crosby, 32 yds missed · 96% expected
- G. Joseph, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- Extra point missed · 96% expected
Penalties: Packers 8 for 92 yards, Vikings 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:46 | Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards | +3% GB +0.5 pts |
| Q1 6:28 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:28 | Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +0.2 pts |
| Q1 0:07 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:59 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Darnell Savage Jr.), 37 yards | +6% MIN +3.0 pts |
| Q2 9:09 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Kingsley Keke), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% MIN +5.0 pts |
| Q2 7:37 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +2% MIN +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:48 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers, 10 yards | +3% MIN +1.1 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% MIN +1.9 pts |
| Q4 7:55 | Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 15 yards | +6% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:08 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.6 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:10 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +8% MIN | MIN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 14:13 | The Packers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +7% GB | GB: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 9:59 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Darnell Savage Jr.), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 2747 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 | +6% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 9:09 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Kingsley Keke), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 901 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 | +11% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 8:31 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +7% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 9:19 | The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +6% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 7:55 | The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 2019 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 | +15% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 2:24 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +7% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Josh Myers (GB C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Allen Lazard (GB WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Aaron Jones (GB RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Robert Tonyan (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Rashan Gary (GB LB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 88% · Vikings 12%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 3
- Luck in points
- 11.8 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 8.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 54% · Vikings 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · 
Packers · 
Vikings
More from Week 11 2021
- Patriots at Falcons NE 25–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Ravens at Bears BAL 16–13 · replay 63% for the winner
- Lions at Browns CLE 13–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 22–13 · replay 11% for the winner
- Colts at Bills IND 41–15 · replay 58% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets MIA 24–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Saints at Eagles PHI 40–29 · replay 59% for the winner
- 49ers at Jaguars SF 30–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Washington at Panthers WAS 27–21 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bengals at Raiders CIN 32–13 · replay 49% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks ARI 23–13 · replay 64% for the winner
- Cowboys at Chiefs KC 19–9 · replay 84% for the winner
- Steelers at Chargers LAC 41–37 · replay 98% for the winner
- Giants at Buccaneers TB 30–10 · replay 97% for the winner