luckadjusted

Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Vikings, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Packers 34–31, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 13.8 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:55 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 6, worth 20 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 31
Minnesota Vikings 34

November 21, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Packers −1

Luck index +56 Vikings lucky · −56 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 6, Vikings win 4.

  1. 1 GB 34 MIN 13
  2. 2 GB 35 MIN 19
  3. 3 GB 38 MIN 27
  4. 4 GB 21 MIN 14
  5. 5 GB 21 MIN 16
  6. 6 GB 27 MIN 24
  7. 7 GB 14 MIN 17
  8. 8 GB 20 MIN 26
  9. 9 GB 21 MIN 33
  10. 10 GB 14 MIN 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 56% of them, Vikings 44%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+11.1%
Packers by 9–1615.4%
Packers by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation5.8%
Vikings by 1–821.4%
Vikings by 9–1612.9%
Vikings by 17+9.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 17.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 54 yds made · 70% expected
  • G. Joseph, 51 yds made · 73% expected
  • M. Crosby, 32 yds missed · 96% expected
  • G. Joseph, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:10 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +14% MIN MIN: Field goal
2 Q2 14:13 The Packers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% GB GB: Missed field goal
3 Q2 9:09 Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Kingsley Keke), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 901 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +11% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:38 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:19 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:55 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 2019 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +20% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:24 The Vikings converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +17% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:02 G. Joseph made 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +18% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Myers (GB C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Allen Lazard (GB WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Aaron Jones (GB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Tonyan (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rashan Gary (GB LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 95% · Vikings 5%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
20.1 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 17.1
Replay with same day's form
Packers 56% · Vikings 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Packers · Vikings

More from Week 11 2021