luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Raiders, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Raiders 32–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:12 left): Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Quinton Jefferson), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 32
Las Vegas Raiders 13

November 21, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −1

Luck index +51 Bengals lucky · −51 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 5, Raiders win 5.

  1. 1 CIN 40 LV 17
  2. 2 CIN 31 LV 17
  3. 3 CIN 26 LV 17
  4. 4 CIN 22 LV 17
  5. 5 CIN 22 LV 20
  6. 6 CIN 20 LV 22
  7. 7 CIN 31 LV 36
  8. 8 CIN 20 LV 30
  9. 9 CIN 10 LV 24
  10. 10 CIN 16 LV 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 49% of them, Raiders 51%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+10.2%
Bengals by 9–1615.5%
Bengals by 1–821.2%
Level after regulation5.4%
Raiders by 1–822.4%
Raiders by 9–1614.7%
Raiders by 17+10.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.3 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 19, without the luck Bengals by 8.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. McPherson, 54 yds made · 68% expected
  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • E. McPherson, 53 yds made · 70% expected
  • E. McPherson, 51 yds made · 72% expected
  • E. McPherson, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 1 for 5 yards, Raiders 7 for 77 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Yannick Ngakoue), 15 yards +9% CIN +2.3 pts
Q2 7:12 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Quinton Jefferson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% CIN +1.9 pts
Q2 4:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 11 yards +5% CIN +1.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +1% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 8:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 16 yards +2% CIN +1.0 pts
Q4 8:40 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.1 pts
Q4 4:51 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Josh Jacobs), 15 yards +1% CIN +1.4 pts
Q4 3:04 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (B.J. Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.5 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:14 The Bengals fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LV CIN: Field goal
2 Q1 9:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Yannick Ngakoue), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1984 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +9% CIN CIN: Field goal
3 Q2 7:12 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Quinton Jefferson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1849 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:47 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 11 yardsJudgment calls +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:49 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% LV CIN: Punt
7 Q3 12:19 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% CIN LV: Punt
8 Q4 5:08 The Bengals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trayvon Mullen (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Trae Waynes (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 94% · Raiders 6%

Final margin
Bengals by 19
Luck in points
10.3 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 49% · Raiders 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Bengals · Raiders

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