Steelers unlucky 24 
Browns lucky 27 Replays favor loser · Browns win 31% of replays 2026 NFL season · October 1, 2026–October 5
Week 4 2026: who deserved to win
The winner was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Steelers 27–24 in a game they win 31% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
1 of 16 games scored so far; the rest appear the morning after they’re played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Steelers unlucky 24 Browns lucky 27 Replays favor loser · Browns win 31% of replays Week 4 2026 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 27–24 vs Steelers | 43% | 31% | Lucky |
Week 4 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Browns | W 27–24 vs Steelers | 31% | +69 |
| 2 | Steelers | L 24–27 @ Browns | 69% | −69 |