luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Carolina Panthers, 2026: game by game

The Panthers went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.1 wins. Luck cost them 0.1: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–0.

Every game

How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Bears L 37–59 25% −25
Week 2 @ Falcons W 34–3 87% +13

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Fumble bounces+3.1+1.57
Kicks+2.7+1.34
Drops+0.1+0.07
3rd & 4th downs−0.8−0.41
Judgment calls−4.1−2.03
Injuries−5.3−2.67