Week 17 · December 31 – January 4 · 14 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 17 An early look at week 17, from what each team’s play has been worth so far with the luck taken out and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 14 weeks ahead picked 61.5% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.4, so about 81% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ravens by 0.4 · 51% to win
Ours: Ravens by 0.4 Ravens win 51% Bengals win 49% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Ravens win by Bengals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Ravens win 51.3% Bengals win 48.7% Middle 50%: Ravens by 10 to Bengals by 8 50% Middle 90%: Ravens by 23 to Bengals by 21 90% Middle 95%: Ravens by 27 to Bengals by 26 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 8.1% Exactly Bengals by 3 8.0% Exactly Ravens by 7 4.9% Exactly Bengals by 7 4.8% Exactly Ravens by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Bengals +2.3 Last season Ravens +1.9 Quarterbacks Ravens +0.5 This season, luck taken out Ravens +0.4
Bills by 9.1 · 75% to win
Ours: Bills by 9.1 Bills win 75% Dolphins win 25% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Bills win by Dolphins win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bills win 75.4% Dolphins win 24.6% Middle 50%: Bills by 18 to Bills by 1 50% Middle 90%: Bills by 31 to Dolphins by 13 90% Middle 95%: Bills by 35 to Dolphins by 17 95% Exactly Bills by 3 7.5% Exactly Dolphins by 3 5.5% Exactly Bills by 7 5.5% Exactly Bills by 14 5.2% Exactly Bills by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Bills +6.3 Last season Bills +3.3 Home field Dolphins +2.3 Quarterbacks Bills +1.9
Patriots by 1.5 · 54% to win
Ours: Patriots by 1.5 Broncos win 46% Patriots win 54% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Broncos win by Patriots win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Broncos win 45.5% Patriots win 54.5% Middle 50%: Broncos by 7 to Patriots by 10 50% Middle 90%: Broncos by 21 to Patriots by 24 90% Middle 95%: Broncos by 25 to Patriots by 28 95% Exactly Patriots by 3 8.2% Exactly Broncos by 3 7.8% Exactly Patriots by 7 5.1% Exactly Broncos by 7 4.6% Exactly Patriots by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Patriots +2.3 This season, luck taken out Broncos +1.2 Last season Patriots +0.2 Quarterbacks Patriots +0.1
Browns by 0.8 · 53% to win
Ours: Browns by 0.8 Colts win 47% Browns win 53% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Colts win by Browns win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Colts win 47.5% Browns win 52.5% Middle 50%: Colts by 8 to Browns by 10 50% Middle 90%: Colts by 21 to Browns by 23 90% Middle 95%: Colts by 25 to Browns by 27 95% Exactly Browns by 3 8.2% Exactly Colts by 3 8.0% Exactly Browns by 7 5.0% Exactly Colts by 7 4.7% Exactly Browns by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Browns +2.3 Last season Colts +2.0 This season, luck taken out Browns +1.8 Quarterbacks Colts +1.3
Chiefs by 6.5 · 69% to win
Ours: Chiefs by 6.5 Chiefs win 69% Chargers win 31% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Chiefs win by Chargers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chiefs win 68.7% Chargers win 31.3% Middle 50%: Chiefs by 16 to Chargers by 3 50% Middle 90%: Chiefs by 28 to Chargers by 16 90% Middle 95%: Chiefs by 32 to Chargers by 20 95% Exactly Chiefs by 3 8.0% Exactly Chargers by 3 6.5% Exactly Chiefs by 7 5.6% Exactly Chiefs by 14 4.7% Exactly Chiefs by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Chiefs +7.4 Home field Chargers +2.3 Quarterbacks Chiefs +1.3 Last season Chiefs +0.1
Rams by 3.2 · 60% to win
Ours: Rams by 3.2 Rams win 60% Buccaneers win 40% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Rams win by Buccaneers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Rams win 59.5% Buccaneers win 40.5% Middle 50%: Rams by 13 to Buccaneers by 6 50% Middle 90%: Rams by 25 to Buccaneers by 19 90% Middle 95%: Rams by 29 to Buccaneers by 23 95% Exactly Rams by 3 8.3% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 7.5% Exactly Rams by 7 5.3% Exactly Buccaneers by 7 4.2% Exactly Rams by 14 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Rams +3.8 Home field Buccaneers +2.3 Quarterbacks Rams +1.5 This season, luck taken out Rams +0.3
Vikings by 1.9 · 56% to win
Ours: Vikings by 1.9 Vikings win 56% Jets win 44% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Vikings win by Jets win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Vikings win 55.6% Jets win 44.4% Middle 50%: Vikings by 11 to Jets by 7 50% Middle 90%: Vikings by 24 to Jets by 20 90% Middle 95%: Vikings by 28 to Jets by 24 95% Exactly Vikings by 3 8.3% Exactly Jets by 3 7.8% Exactly Vikings by 7 5.2% Exactly Jets by 7 4.5% Exactly Vikings by 10 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Jets +2.3 Last season Vikings +2.1 This season, luck taken out Vikings +1.8 Quarterbacks Vikings +0.2
Saints by 0.2 · 51% to win
Ours: Saints by 0.2 Saints win 51% Falcons win 49% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Saints win by Falcons win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Saints win 50.6% Falcons win 49.4% Middle 50%: Saints by 9 to Falcons by 8 50% Middle 90%: Saints by 22 to Falcons by 22 90% Middle 95%: Saints by 27 to Falcons by 26 95% Exactly Saints by 3 8.1% Exactly Falcons by 3 8.1% Exactly Saints by 7 4.9% Exactly Falcons by 7 4.8% Exactly Saints by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Falcons +2.3 Quarterbacks Saints +1.9 This season, luck taken out Saints +0.8 Last season Falcons +0.1
Cowboys by 5.8 · 67% to win
Ours: Cowboys by 5.8 Giants win 33% Cowboys win 67% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Giants win by Cowboys win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Giants win 33.1% Cowboys win 66.9% Middle 50%: Giants by 3 to Cowboys by 14 50% Middle 90%: Giants by 17 to Cowboys by 28 90% Middle 95%: Giants by 21 to Cowboys by 32 95% Exactly Cowboys by 3 8.1% Exactly Giants by 3 6.7% Exactly Cowboys by 7 5.5% Exactly Cowboys by 14 4.6% Exactly Cowboys by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Cowboys +2.3 This season, luck taken out Cowboys +1.6 Quarterbacks Cowboys +1.4 Last season Cowboys +0.4
Steelers by 3.0 · 59% to win
Ours: Steelers by 3.0 Steelers win 59% Titans win 41% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Steelers win by Titans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Steelers win 58.9% Titans win 41.1% Middle 50%: Steelers by 12 to Titans by 6 50% Middle 90%: Steelers by 25 to Titans by 19 90% Middle 95%: Steelers by 29 to Titans by 24 95% Exactly Steelers by 3 8.3% Exactly Titans by 3 7.5% Exactly Steelers by 7 5.3% Exactly Titans by 7 4.2% Exactly Steelers by 14 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Steelers +2.9 Home field Titans +2.3 Quarterbacks Steelers +1.3 This season, luck taken out Steelers +1.1
Seahawks by 3.0 · 59% to win
Ours: Seahawks by 3.0 Seahawks win 59% Panthers win 41% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Seahawks win by Panthers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Seahawks win 59.0% Panthers win 41.0% Middle 50%: Seahawks by 13 to Panthers by 6 50% Middle 90%: Seahawks by 25 to Panthers by 19 90% Middle 95%: Seahawks by 29 to Panthers by 24 95% Exactly Seahawks by 3 8.3% Exactly Panthers by 3 7.5% Exactly Seahawks by 7 5.3% Exactly Panthers by 7 4.2% Exactly Seahawks by 14 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Seahawks +3.3 Home field Panthers +2.3 This season, luck taken out Seahawks +2.3 Quarterbacks Panthers +0.3
Jaguars by 10.2 · 78% to win
Ours: Jaguars by 10.2 Commanders win 22% Jaguars win 78% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Commanders win by Jaguars win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Commanders win 22.1% Jaguars win 77.9% Middle 50%: Jaguars by 3 to Jaguars by 19 50% Middle 90%: Commanders by 12 to Jaguars by 32 90% Middle 95%: Commanders by 16 to Jaguars by 36 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 7.2% Exactly Jaguars by 7 5.4% Exactly Jaguars by 14 5.3% Exactly Commanders by 3 5.1% Exactly Jaguars by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Jaguars +4.5 Last season Jaguars +3.1 Home field Jaguars +2.3 Quarterbacks Jaguars +0.2
Raiders by 1.2 · 54% to win
Ours: Raiders by 1.2 Raiders win 54% Cardinals win 46% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Raiders win by Cardinals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Raiders win 53.7% Cardinals win 46.3% Middle 50%: Raiders by 10 to Cardinals by 7 50% Middle 90%: Raiders by 24 to Cardinals by 21 90% Middle 95%: Raiders by 28 to Cardinals by 25 95% Exactly Raiders by 3 8.2% Exactly Cardinals by 3 7.9% Exactly Raiders by 7 5.1% Exactly Cardinals by 7 4.6% Exactly Raiders by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Raiders +3.7 Home field Cardinals +2.3 Last season Cardinals +0.5 Quarterbacks Raiders +0.3
Bears by 2.6 · 58% to win
Ours: Bears by 2.6 Lions win 42% Bears win 58% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Lions win by Bears win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Lions win 42.2% Bears win 57.8% Middle 50%: Lions by 7 to Bears by 12 50% Middle 90%: Lions by 20 to Bears by 24 90% Middle 95%: Lions by 24 to Bears by 28 95% Exactly Bears by 3 8.3% Exactly Lions by 3 7.6% Exactly Bears by 7 5.3% Exactly Lions by 7 4.3% Exactly Bears by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Bears +2.9 Home field Bears +2.3 Quarterbacks Lions +1.7 Last season Lions +0.9
49ers by 8.7 · 74% to win
Ours: 49ers by 8.7 Eagles win 26% 49ers win 74% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Eagles win by 49ers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Eagles win 25.6% 49ers win 74.4% Middle 50%: Eagles by 1 to 49ers by 18 50% Middle 90%: Eagles by 14 to 49ers by 31 90% Middle 95%: Eagles by 18 to 49ers by 35 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 7.6% Exactly Eagles by 3 5.7% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.5% Exactly 49ers by 14 5.1% Exactly 49ers by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out 49ers +5.5 Home field 49ers +2.3 Quarterbacks 49ers +1.3 Last season Eagles +0.4
Packers by 1.6 · 55% to win
Ours: Packers by 1.6 Texans win 45% Packers win 55% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Texans win by Packers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Texans win 45.0% Packers win 55.0% Middle 50%: Texans by 7 to Packers by 10 50% Middle 90%: Texans by 21 to Packers by 24 90% Middle 95%: Texans by 24 to Packers by 28 95% Exactly Packers by 3 8.3% Exactly Texans by 3 7.8% Exactly Packers by 7 5.1% Exactly Texans by 7 4.5% Exactly Packers by 10 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Packers +2.3 Quarterbacks Packers +1.5 This season, luck taken out Texans +1.2 Last season Texans +0.9
Ravens at 
Bengals 
