luckadjusted

All-time · 7 complete seasons since 2019

The luckiest and unluckiest NFL teams since 2019

The luckiest NFL team since 2019: the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, 13–4 from play worth 8.0 wins (+5.0). The unluckiest: the 2019 Los Angeles Chargers, 5–11 from play worth 10.8.

Luck is wins minus replay wins: how many games a team won beyond what its play was worth, replaying every game 4,000 times with the same day’s form. Regular seasons only. Luck rarely lasts: of the teams below with a season after, the luckiest (20) won 2.0 fewer games the next year on average, the unluckiest (20) 2.5 more.

Luckiest teams since 2019

#SeasonTeamRecordReplay winsLuck, winsOne-scoreNext season
12022Minnesota Vikings 13–48.0 +5.0 11–07–10
22019Green Bay Packers 13–38.0 +5.0 8–113–3
32025Philadelphia Eagles 11–66.5 +4.5 8–4–
42025Jacksonville Jaguars 13–48.6 +4.4 6–3–
52020Kansas City Chiefs 14–29.9 +4.1 8–112–5
62019Chicago Bears 8–84.0 +4.0 6–58–8
72019Seattle Seahawks 11–57.1 +3.9 10–212–4
82025Houston Texans 12–58.2 +3.8 7–5–
92021Pittsburgh Steelers 9–7–15.8 +3.7 8–2–19–8
102025Chicago Bears 11–67.7 +3.3 7–4–
112020Miami Dolphins 10–66.7 +3.3 3–49–8
122025Denver Broncos 14–310.7 +3.3 11–2–
132020Chicago Bears 8–84.8 +3.2 6–56–11
142024Kansas City Chiefs 15–212.1 +2.9 11–06–11
152023Cincinnati Bengals 9–86.2 +2.8 5–49–8
162023Cleveland Browns 11–68.2 +2.8 6–23–14
172024Pittsburgh Steelers 10–77.2 +2.8 6–410–7
182024Detroit Lions 15–212.2 +2.8 7–29–8
192024Denver Broncos 10–77.3 +2.7 1–614–3
202023Pittsburgh Steelers 10–77.4 +2.6 9–210–7
212024Los Angeles Chargers 11–68.5 +2.5 4–411–6
222021Tennessee Titans 12–59.5 +2.5 6–27–10
232023New York Giants 6–113.5 +2.5 4–43–14
242019New York Jets 7–94.5 +2.5 5–22–14
252019Tennessee Titans 9–76.6 +2.4 3–311–5

Unluckiest teams since 2019

#SeasonTeamRecordReplay winsLuck, winsOne-scoreNext season
12019Los Angeles Chargers 5–1110.8 −5.8 2–97–9
22019Dallas Cowboys 8–813.5 −5.5 1–66–10
32024San Francisco 49ers 6–1110.5 −4.5 2–612–5
42025Las Vegas Raiders 3–146.8 −3.8 2–5–
52020San Francisco 49ers 6–109.7 −3.7 3–510–7
62019Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7–910.6 −3.6 3–611–5
72025Kansas City Chiefs 6–119.4 −3.4 1–9–
82020Carolina Panthers 5–118.4 −3.4 3–85–12
92019Detroit Lions 3–12–16.6 −3.1 3–8–15–11
102023Washington Commanders 4–137.1 −3.1 4–612–5
112025Arizona Cardinals 3–146.1 −3.1 2–8–
122025Green Bay Packers 9–7–112.5 −3.0 4–5–1–
132025Washington Commanders 5–127.8 −2.8 2–5–
142024Las Vegas Raiders 4–136.8 −2.8 3–43–14
152020Houston Texans 4–126.6 −2.6 2–84–13
162022New Orleans Saints 7–109.6 −2.6 5–69–8
172022Denver Broncos 5–127.6 −2.6 4–98–9
182022Cleveland Browns 7–109.6 −2.6 2–611–6
192023Buffalo Bills 11–613.6 −2.6 6–613–4
202023Minnesota Vikings 7–109.5 −2.5 6–814–3
212021Jacksonville Jaguars 3–145.5 −2.5 2–49–8
222019Indianapolis Colts 7–99.4 −2.4 5–611–5
232024Tennessee Titans 3–145.4 −2.4 2–63–14
242024New York Jets 5–127.4 −2.4 3–73–14
252019Cincinnati Bengals 2–144.4 −2.4 0–84–11–1

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