2025 season · final
Houston Texans, 2025: game by game
The Texans went 12–5 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.7 wins. Luck added 3.3: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–5.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.9.
Every game
How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Rams | L 9–14 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 2 | vs Buccaneers | L 19–20 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 3 | @ Jaguars | L 10–17 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 4 | vs Titans | W 26–0 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 5 | @ Ravens | W 44–10 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 7 | @ Seahawks | L 19–27 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 8 | vs 49ers | W 26–15 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 9 | vs Broncos | L 15–18 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 10 | vs Jaguars | W 36–29 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 11 | @ Titans | W 16–13 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 12 | vs Bills | W 23–19 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 13 | @ Colts | W 20–16 | 22% | +78 |
| Week 14 | @ Chiefs | W 20–10 | 21% | +79 |
| Week 15 | vs Cardinals | W 40–20 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 16 | vs Raiders | W 23–21 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 17 | @ Chargers | W 20–16 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 18 | vs Colts | W 38–30 | 70% | +30 |
| Wild Card | @ Steelers | W 30–6 | 77% | +23 |
| Divisional round | @ Patriots | L 16–28 | 9% | −9 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Texans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.95 | +38.8 |
| Drops | +0.79 | +31.1 |
| Injuries | +0.38 | +13.6 |
| Judgment calls | +0.21 | −7.3 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.12 | +5.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.16 | −6.8 |