luckadjusted

2025 season · final

Houston Texans, 2025: game by game

The Texans went 12–5 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.2 wins. Luck added 3.8: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–5.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.9.

Every game

How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Rams L 9–14 42% −42
Week 2 vs Buccaneers L 19–20 23% −23
Week 3 @ Jaguars L 10–17 18% −18
Week 4 vs Titans W 26–0 83% +17
Week 5 @ Ravens W 44–10 65% +35
Week 7 @ Seahawks L 19–27 12% −12
Week 8 vs 49ers W 26–15 46% +54
Week 9 vs Broncos L 15–18 27% −27
Week 10 vs Jaguars W 36–29 94% +6
Week 11 @ Titans W 16–13 90% +10
Week 12 vs Bills W 23–19 36% +64
Week 13 @ Colts W 20–16 36% +64
Week 14 @ Chiefs W 20–10 11% +89
Week 15 vs Cardinals W 40–20 80% +20
Week 16 vs Raiders W 23–21 39% +61
Week 17 @ Chargers W 20–16 65% +36
Week 18 vs Colts W 38–30 56% +45
Wild Card @ Steelers W 30–6 74% +26
Divisional round @ Patriots L 16–28 12% −12

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Texans’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Kicks+38.6+2.27
Drops+23.7+1.39
Injuries+18.3+1.08
Fumble bounces+3.1+0.19
Rest−0.2−0.01
3rd & 4th downs−2.5−0.15
Judgment calls−13.9−0.82