One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Texans in one-score games

The Texans are 1–4 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 7–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.0 of those 5. Since 2019: 35–38–1 in 74 one-score games, 34.3 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Texans win in replays (regular season).

2026 −1.0 1–4

2025 +1.5 7–5

2024 0.0 7–5

2023 +1.1 7–3

2022 +1.5 3–6–1

2021 −1.1 0–4

2020 −2.2 2–8

2019 +1.3 8–3

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–4	2.0 of 5	−1.0	3–5
2025	7–5	5.5 of 12	+1.5	12–5
2024	7–5	7.0 of 12	0.0	10–7
2023	7–3	5.9 of 10	+1.1	10–7
2022	3–6–1	2.0 of 10	+1.5	3–13–1
2021	0–4	1.1 of 4	−1.1	4–13
2020	2–8	4.2 of 10	−2.2	4–12
2019	8–3	6.7 of 11	+1.3	10–6

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Bills	L 31–36	13%	−13
Week 3	@ Colts	L 17–19	75%	−75
Week 4	vs Cowboys	L 30–34	57%	−57
Week 6	vs Jaguars	W 34–31	49%	+51
Week 7	vs Giants	L 21–27	6%	−6

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Houston Texans, every season