luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Houston Texans, 2023: game by game

The Texans went 10–7 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.8 wins. Luck added 1.2: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–3.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.0.

Every game

How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Ravens L 9–25 19% −19
Week 2 vs Colts L 20–31 23% −23
Week 3 @ Jaguars W 37–17 31% +69
Week 4 vs Steelers W 30–6 87% +13
Week 5 @ Falcons L 19–21 59% −59
Week 6 vs Saints W 20–13 52% +48
Week 8 @ Panthers L 13–15 56% −56
Week 9 vs Buccaneers W 39–37 81% +19
Week 10 @ Bengals W 30–27 83% +17
Week 11 vs Cardinals W 21–16 73% +27
Week 12 vs Jaguars L 21–24 38% −38
Week 13 vs Broncos W 22–17 39% +61
Week 14 @ Jets L 6–30 35% −35
Week 15 @ Titans W 19–16 84% +16
Week 16 vs Browns L 22–36 5% −5
Week 17 vs Titans W 26–3 84% +16
Week 18 @ Colts W 23–19 34% +66
Wild Card vs Browns W 45–14 91% +9
Divisional round @ Ravens L 10–34 14% −14

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Texans’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Fumble bounces+11.0+0.65
Kicks+2.3+0.13
Drops+2.2+0.13
Rest−0.4−0.02
3rd & 4th downs−3.4−0.20
Judgment calls−15.8−0.93
Injuries−32.6−1.92