2023 season · final
Houston Texans, 2023: game by game
The Texans went 10–7 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.5 wins. Luck added 1.5: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–3.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.1.
Every game
How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Ravens | L 9–25 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 2 | vs Colts | L 20–31 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 3 | @ Jaguars | W 37–17 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 4 | vs Steelers | W 30–6 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 5 | @ Falcons | L 19–21 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 6 | vs Saints | W 20–13 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 8 | @ Panthers | L 13–15 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 9 | vs Buccaneers | W 39–37 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 10 | @ Bengals | W 30–27 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 11 | vs Cardinals | W 21–16 | 75% | +26 |
| Week 12 | vs Jaguars | L 21–24 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 13 | vs Broncos | W 22–17 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 14 | @ Jets | L 6–30 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 15 | @ Titans | W 19–16 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 16 | vs Browns | L 22–36 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 17 | vs Titans | W 26–3 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 18 | @ Colts | W 23–19 | 38% | +62 |
| Wild Card | vs Browns | W 45–14 | 92% | +8 |
| Divisional round | @ Ravens | L 10–34 | 13% | −13 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Texans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.90 | +7.5 |
| Kicks | +0.47 | +2.7 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.33 | +14.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.17 | −3.1 |
| Judgment calls | −0.18 | −7.3 |
| Injuries | −0.69 | −24.3 |