luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Texans at Jets, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Texans 30–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 8 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

An off day for the Texans: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Texans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:48 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Xavier Hutchinson), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Houston Texans 6
New York Jets 30

December 10, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3.5

Luck index +15 Jets about even · −15 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Jets win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 24 NYJ 12
  2. 2 HOU 17 NYJ 13
  3. 3 HOU 10 NYJ 12
  4. 4 HOU 7 NYJ 12
  5. 5 HOU 7 NYJ 15
  6. 6 HOU 9 NYJ 19
  7. 7 HOU 12 NYJ 26
  8. 8 HOU 6 NYJ 23
  9. 9 HOU 7 NYJ 28
  10. 10 HOU 9 NYJ 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Texans

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.

34 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Texans offenseEPA per play gained −0.32 +0.04 worse by 0.36
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.19 +0.11 worse by 0.09
Jets offenseEPA per play gained +0.19 −0.04 better by 0.24
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed −0.32 +0.04 better by 0.36

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 15% of them, Jets 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+1.1%
Texans by 9–163.9%
Texans by 1–89.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Jets by 1–820.8%
Jets by 9–1623.8%
Jets by 17+39.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.3 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 24, without the luck Jets by 13.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 51 yds made · 68% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 55 yds made · 64% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 35 yards, Jets 8 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:48 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Xavier Hutchinson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% NYJ +3.6 pts
Q1 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% HOU +2.4 pts
Q2 13:32 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yards +6% HOU +2.1 pts
Q2 12:47 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 4:47 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.2 pts
Q2 3:57 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 5 yards +2% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q3 13:07 False Start on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap +7% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 8:01 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 6:41 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Will Anderson), 15 yards +3% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 0:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Tony Adams), 7 yards +4% HOU +1.6 pts
Q4 5:30 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 10 yards 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 1:08 Encroachment on the Jets (Solomon Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.2 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:48 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Xavier Hutchinson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 198 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +12% NYJ NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 3:13 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +6% HOU HOU: Punt
3 Q1 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% HOU HOU: Punt
4 Q2 13:32 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1978 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q2 4:47 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Jets, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q2 0:21 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +7% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q3 13:07 False Start on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 1581 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q3 11:56 The Jets converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Connor McGovern (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Dalton Schultz (HOU TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • DeAndre Houston-Carson (HOU FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 1% · Jets 99%

Final margin
Jets by 24
Luck in points
10.3 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 13.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 15% · Jets 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Texans · Jets

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