The luckiest and unluckiest teams of 2023

#	Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck in wins	One-score	Coin-flip wins	Through the season
1	Bengals	9–8	6.2	+2.8	5–4	8.0
2	Browns	11–6	8.2	+2.8	6–2	9.7
3	Steelers	10–7	7.4	+2.6	9–2	6.8
4	Giants	6–11	3.5	+2.5	4–4	6.7
5	Jets	7–10	5.3	+1.7	4–4	7.4
6	Seahawks	9–8	7.4	+1.6	6–4	7.6
7	Lions	12–5	10.5	+1.5	5–3	11.6
8	Texans	10–7	8.8	+1.2	7–3	9.0
9	Buccaneers	9–8	7.8	+1.2	3–4	7.7
10	Cowboys	12–5	11.0	+1.0	3–2	11.6
11	Eagles	11–6	10.3	+0.7	8–3	8.5
12	Colts	9–8	8.4	+0.6	6–3	8.9
13	Titans	6–11	5.6	+0.4	5–7	7.6
14	Packers	9–8	8.6	+0.4	6–5	7.4
15	Raiders	8–9	7.9	+0.1	5–5	7.1
16	Rams	10–7	10.0	0.0	6–4	8.7
17	Broncos	8–9	8.2	−0.2	5–4	7.0
18	Saints	9–8	9.2	−0.2	3–6	9.6
19	Bears	7–10	7.3	−0.3	2–6	8.9
20	Cardinals	4–13	4.5	−0.5	2–5	4.1
21	Patriots	4–13	4.5	−0.5	4–8	5.7
22	Jaguars	9–8	9.7	−0.7	3–4	8.1
23	Ravens	13–4	13.8	−0.8	4–4	14.7
24	Panthers	2–15	2.8	−0.8	2–6	3.4
25	Dolphins	11–6	12.3	−1.3	4–3	10.7
26	49ers	12–5	13.7	−1.7	1–3	13.6
27	Chiefs	11–6	12.7	−1.7	6–5	11.5
28	Chargers	5–12	6.8	−1.8	3–8	7.4
29	Falcons	7–10	9.4	−2.4	4–6	7.7
30	Vikings	7–10	9.5	−2.5	6–8	7.3
31	Bills	11–6	13.6	−2.6	6–6	13.8
32	Commanders	4–13	7.1	−3.1	4–6	4.3

Replay wins: the sum, over every game, of how often the team wins a replay with the same day’s form. Coin-flip wins: the same with only kicks, bounces, drops, conversions and calls re-rolled; it is the number that best predicts the rest of a season (validation). One-score: games decided by 8 points or fewer.

Did luck add wins or take them away?

Each logo is a team. Across: the wins its play was worth (replay wins). Up: the wins it actually got. On the diagonal the two match; above it, luck added wins; below it, luck cost wins.

Luck added wins Luck cost wins 02468101214 02468101214 Wins their play was worth (replay wins) Actual wins

Game by game

The luck index of every game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game they win 9 times in 10 scores −90. Teams sorted luckiest to unluckiest.