The luckiest and unluckiest teams of 2023

#	Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck in wins	One-score	Coin-flip wins	Through the season
1	Bengals	9–8	5.9	+3.1	5–4	7.9
2	Browns	11–6	8.1	+2.9	6–2	9.7
3	Giants	6–11	4.0	+2.0	4–4	6.3
4	Steelers	10–7	8.1	+1.9	9–2	6.8
5	Seahawks	9–8	7.5	+1.5	6–4	7.3
6	Texans	10–7	8.5	+1.5	7–3	8.5
7	Eagles	11–6	9.9	+1.1	8–3	8.0
8	Lions	12–5	10.9	+1.1	5–3	11.7
9	Buccaneers	9–8	7.9	+1.1	3–4	7.7
10	Jets	7–10	6.0	+1.0	4–4	7.0
11	Titans	6–11	5.1	+0.9	5–7	7.4
12	Cowboys	12–5	11.3	+0.7	3–2	12.2
13	Raiders	8–9	7.7	+0.3	5–5	7.3
14	Colts	9–8	8.7	+0.3	6–3	9.5
15	Packers	9–8	8.8	+0.2	6–5	7.2
16	Rams	10–7	9.9	+0.1	6–4	9.0
17	Patriots	4–13	4.3	−0.3	4–8	5.8
18	Broncos	8–9	8.4	−0.4	5–4	7.6
19	Bears	7–10	7.4	−0.4	2–6	8.4
20	Saints	9–8	9.4	−0.4	3–6	9.7
21	Ravens	13–4	13.7	−0.7	4–4	15.2
22	Cardinals	4–13	4.7	−0.7	2–5	4.0
23	Chiefs	11–6	11.9	−0.9	6–5	11.6
24	Jaguars	9–8	10.0	−1.0	3–4	7.9
25	Panthers	2–15	3.1	−1.1	2–6	3.7
26	Dolphins	11–6	12.2	−1.2	4–3	10.3
27	Chargers	5–12	6.3	−1.3	3–8	7.2
28	Falcons	7–10	9.0	−2.0	4–6	8.0
29	49ers	12–5	14.0	−2.0	1–3	13.9
30	Commanders	4–13	6.2	−2.2	4–6	4.3
31	Bills	11–6	13.3	−2.3	6–6	13.3
32	Vikings	7–10	9.6	−2.6	6–8	7.7

Replay wins: the sum, over every game, of how often the team wins a replay with the same day’s form. Coin-flip wins: the same with only kicks, bounces, drops, conversions and calls re-rolled; it is the number that best predicts the rest of a season (validation). One-score: games decided by 8 points or fewer.

Did luck add wins or take them away?

Each logo is a team. Across: the wins its play was worth (replay wins). Up: the wins it actually got. On the diagonal the two match; above it, luck added wins; below it, luck cost wins.

Luck added wins Luck cost wins 02468101214 02468101214 Wins their play was worth (replay wins) Actual wins

Game by game

The luck index of every game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game they win 9 times in 10 scores −90. Teams sorted luckiest to unluckiest.

The adjusted standings, 2023

The standings adjusted for luck: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and referee call re-rolled, everything else as played. Four division winners and three wild cards a conference make the playoffs (no tiebreakers). Move the sliders to decide how much of each counts as luck; the link keeps your settings.

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs

25%

Fumble bounces

100%

Interceptions

0%

Drops

100%

Kicks

100%

Judgment calls

50%

Pre-snap flags

0%

Special teams

0%

What counts

Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break

none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break, and counting some doesn’t make these standings forecast the rest of a season any better. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Reset to our fit Copy link to this view

Order by adjusted rank rank now Group by conference division

AFC

Adjusted for luck, the Colts would make the playoffs instead of the Steelers.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Record	Adjusted wins	Luck	Seed
1=	1	Ravens	13–4	15.2	−2.2	1
2=	2	Bills	11–6	13.3	−2.3	2
3▲1	4	Chiefs	11–6	11.7	−0.7	3
4▼1	3	Dolphins	11–6	10.3	+0.7	5
5=	5	Browns	11–6	9.7	+1.3	6
6▲4	10	Colts	9–8	9.5	−0.5	4
7▼1	6	Texans	10–7	8.5	+1.5	7
8=	8	Jaguars	9–8	7.9	+1.1
9=	9	Bengals	9–8	7.8	+1.2
10▲2	12	Broncos	8–9	7.6	+0.4
11▲3	14	Titans	6–11	7.4	−1.4
12▼1	11	Raiders	8–9	7.3	+0.7
13▲2	15	Chargers	5–12	7.2	−2.2
14▼1	13	Jets	7–10	7.1	−0.1
15▼8	7	Steelers	10–7	6.7	+3.3	out
16=	16	Patriots	4–13	5.7	−1.7

NFC

Adjusted for luck, the Saints, the Bears and the Falcons would make the playoffs instead of the Eagles, the Buccaneers and the Packers.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Record	Adjusted wins	Luck	Seed
1▲1	2	49ers	12–5	13.9	−1.9	1
2▼1	1	Cowboys	12–5	12.2	−0.2	2
3=	3	Lions	12–5	11.6	+0.4	3
4▲2	6	Saints	9–8	9.7	−0.7	4
5=	5	Rams	10–7	9.1	+0.9	5
6▲5	11	Bears	7–10	8.5	−1.5	6
7▲5	12	Falcons	7–10	8.0	−1.0	7
8▼4	4	Eagles	11–6	8.0	+3.0	out
9▲1	10	Vikings	7–10	7.7	−0.7
10▼2	8	Buccaneers	9–8	7.7	+1.3	out
11▼2	9	Seahawks	9–8	7.3	+1.7
12▼5	7	Packers	9–8	7.2	+1.8	out
13=	13	Giants	6–11	6.3	−0.3
14▲1	15	Commanders	4–13	4.3	−0.3
15▼1	14	Cardinals	4–13	4.0	0.0
16=	16	Panthers	2–15	3.7	−1.7

Adjusted wins: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and referee call re-rolled at your settings, everything else as played. Seed: playoff seed in the adjusted standings; 5 in only in the adjusted standings (luck kept them out), out made the playoffs only thanks to luck. Adjusted: rank in the conference by adjusted wins, ▲ places up because luck cost them, ▼ down because luck helped. Now: rank by record.

2023, week by week

Every upset of 2023