luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · October 5, 2023–October 9

Week 5 2023: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Commanders 40–20 in a game they win 37% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 5 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bears 40–20 @ Commanders 33% 37% Lucky
Jaguars 25–20 @ Bills 34% 14% Lucky
Steelers 17–10 vs Ravens 37% 65% Deserved
Saints 34–0 @ Patriots 43% 90% Deserved
Colts 23–16 vs Titans 43% 61% Deserved
Jets 31–21 @ Broncos 43% 36% Lucky

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jaguars W 25–20 @ Bills 14% +86
2 Jets W 31–21 @ Broncos 36% +64
3 Bears W 40–20 @ Commanders 37% +63
4 Falcons W 21–19 vs Texans 59% +41
5 Colts W 23–16 vs Titans 61% +39
6 Bengals W 34–20 @ Cardinals 64% +36
7 Steelers W 17–10 vs Ravens 65% +35
8 Chiefs W 27–20 @ Vikings 76% +24
9 Eagles W 23–14 @ Rams 82% +18
10 Raiders W 17–13 vs Packers 84% +16
11 Saints W 34–0 @ Patriots 90% +10
12 Lions W 42–24 vs Panthers 97% +3
13 Dolphins W 31–16 vs Giants 100% 0
14 49ers W 42–10 vs Cowboys 100% 0
15 Cowboys L 10–42 @ 49ers 0% 0
16 Giants L 16–31 @ Dolphins 0% 0
17 Panthers L 24–42 @ Lions 3% −3
18 Patriots L 0–34 vs Saints 10% −10
19 Packers L 13–17 @ Raiders 16% −16
20 Rams L 14–23 vs Eagles 18% −18
21 Vikings L 20–27 vs Chiefs 24% −24
22 Ravens L 10–17 @ Steelers 35% −35
23 Cardinals L 20–34 vs Bengals 36% −36
24 Titans L 16–23 @ Colts 39% −39
25 Texans L 19–21 @ Falcons 41% −41
26 Commanders L 20–40 vs Bears 63% −63
27 Broncos L 21–31 vs Jets 64% −64
28 Bills L 20–25 vs Jaguars 86% −86