2023 season · final

Arizona Cardinals, 2023: game by game

The Cardinals went 4–13 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.5 wins. Luck cost them 0.5: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.

Every game

How often the Cardinals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Commanders	L 16–20	12%	−12
Week 2	vs Giants	L 28–31	21%	−21
Week 3	vs Cowboys	W 28–16	64%	+36
Week 4	@ 49ers	L 16–35	7%	−7
Week 5	vs Bengals	L 20–34	36%	−36
Week 6	@ Rams	L 9–26	12%	−12
Week 7	@ Seahawks	L 10–20	13%	−13
Week 8	vs Ravens	L 24–31	35%	−35
Week 9	@ Browns	L 0–27	1%	−1
Week 10	vs Falcons	W 25–23	46%	+54
Week 11	@ Texans	L 16–21	27%	−27
Week 12	vs Rams	L 14–37	2%	−2
Week 13	@ Steelers	W 24–10	42%	+58
Week 15	vs 49ers	L 29–45	1%	−1
Week 16	@ Bears	L 16–27	22%	−22
Week 17	@ Eagles	W 35–31	53%	+47
Week 18	vs Seahawks	L 20–21	57%	−57

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −12 @ WAS

Wk 2 −21 vs NYG

Wk 3 +36 vs DAL

Wk 4 −7 @ SF

Wk 5 −36 vs CIN

Wk 6 −12 @ LA

Wk 7 −13 @ SEA

Wk 8 −35 vs BAL

Wk 9 −1 @ CLE

Wk 10 +54 vs ATL

Wk 11 −27 @ HOU

Wk 12 −2 vs LA

Wk 13 +58 @ PIT

Wk 15 −1 vs SF

Wk 16 −22 @ CHI

Wk 17 +47 @ PHI

Wk 18 −57 vs SEA

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Cardinals’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Fumble bounces	+18.9	+1.11
Judgment calls	+15.3	+0.90
Kicks	+9.7	+0.57
Drops	+8.4	+0.49
Rest	+1.0	+0.06
3rd & 4th downs	+0.5	+0.03
Injuries	−24.8	−1.46