2023 season · final

Arizona Cardinals, 2023: game by game

The Cardinals went 4–13 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.7 wins. Luck cost them 0.7: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.

Every game

How often the Cardinals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Commanders	L 16–20	13%	−13
Week 2	vs Giants	L 28–31	16%	−16
Week 3	vs Cowboys	W 28–16	79%	+21
Week 4	@ 49ers	L 16–35	3%	−3
Week 5	vs Bengals	L 20–34	36%	−36
Week 6	@ Rams	L 9–26	7%	−7
Week 7	@ Seahawks	L 10–20	12%	−12
Week 8	vs Ravens	L 24–31	37%	−37
Week 9	@ Browns	L 0–27	1%	−1
Week 10	vs Falcons	W 25–23	44%	+56
Week 11	@ Texans	L 16–21	26%	−26
Week 12	vs Rams	L 14–37	2%	−2
Week 13	@ Steelers	W 24–10	42%	+58
Week 15	vs 49ers	L 29–45	1%	−1
Week 16	@ Bears	L 16–27	37%	−37
Week 17	@ Eagles	W 35–31	58%	+42
Week 18	vs Seahawks	L 20–21	58%	−58

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −13 @ WAS

Wk 2 −16 vs NYG

Wk 3 +21 vs DAL

Wk 4 −3 @ SF

Wk 5 −36 vs CIN

Wk 6 −7 @ LA

Wk 7 −12 @ SEA

Wk 8 −37 vs BAL

Wk 9 −1 @ CLE

Wk 10 +56 vs ATL

Wk 11 −26 @ HOU

Wk 12 −2 vs LA

Wk 13 +58 @ PIT

Wk 15 −1 vs SF

Wk 16 −37 @ CHI

Wk 17 +42 @ PHI

Wk 18 −58 vs SEA

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cardinals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.73	+24.5
Drops	+0.11	+3.6
Rest	+0.02	+1.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.14	+0.4
Kicks	−0.24	+9.4
Injuries	−0.45	−18.6