luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Cardinals at Texans, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Cardinals 21–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.7 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Texans were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:35 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 8, worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 16
Houston Texans 21

November 19, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5.5

Luck index +27 Texans lucky · −27 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 3, Texans win 7.

  1. 1 ARI 30 HOU 13
  2. 2 ARI 44 HOU 37
  3. 3 ARI 23 HOU 20
  4. 4 ARI 27 HOU 30
  5. 5 ARI 19 HOU 25
  6. 6 ARI 21 HOU 29
  7. 7 ARI 16 HOU 28
  8. 8 ARI 17 HOU 34
  9. 9 ARI 16 HOU 37
  10. 10 ARI 20 HOU 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 27% of them, Texans 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+3.4%
Cardinals by 9–167.4%
Cardinals by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation3.8%
Texans by 1–825.8%
Texans by 9–1621.3%
Texans by 17+23.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 1.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 57 yds made · 65% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 48 yds missed · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:54 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:55 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q1 1:26 M. Prater made 57-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 42 of 58 from 45+ before +8% ARI ARI: Turnover
4 Q3 2:57 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:54 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +11% HOU ARI: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 11:38 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% ARI HOU: Punt
7 Q4 8:12 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marquise Brown), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3869 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% HOU HOU: Turnover
8 Q4 0:35 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +18% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Brown (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Michael Wilson (ARI WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jonathan Ledbetter (ARI DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dennis Daley (ARI T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 34% · Texans 66%

Final margin
Texans by 5
Luck in points
3.1 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 27% · Texans 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Cardinals · Texans

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