Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023
Cardinals at Texans, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?
The Texans beat the Cardinals 21–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Before kickoff the Texans were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:35 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 8, worth 16 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final
 Arizona Cardinals | 16 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Texans lucky · −26 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 3, Texans win 7.
- 1 ARI 24 HOU 7
- 2 ARI 28 HOU 20
- 3 ARI 27 HOU 24
- 4 ARI 7 HOU 9
- 5 ARI 16 HOU 20
- 6 ARI 13 HOU 20
- 7 ARI 17 HOU 28
- 8 ARI 16 HOU 30
- 9 ARI 10 HOU 30
- 10 ARI 7 HOU 35
Your call
Did the Texans earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 25% of them, Texans 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 3.3% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 7.1% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 14.5% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 24.5% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 22.6% |
| Texans by 17+ | 23.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Prater, 57 yds made · 68% expected
- M. Ammendola, 48 yds missed · 74% expected
Penalties: Cardinals 5 for 50 yards, Texans 3 for 19 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:19 | Illegal Contact on the Texans (Steven Nelson), 5 yards | +1% ARI +0.4 pts |
| Q1 13:28 | Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q1 4:07 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 10 yards | +3% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals, 15 yards | +3% HOU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 4:52 | Face Mask on the Texans (Will Anderson), 9 yards | +3% ARI +1.2 pts |
| Q3 1:30 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Kei'Trel Clark), 10 yards | +5% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:12 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marquise Brown), 10 yards | +7% HOU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 4:18 | Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HOU +0.7 pts |
Cardinals penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:54 | The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 1:26 | M. Prater made a 57-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 42 of 58 from 45+ before | +7% ARI | ARI: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 2:57 | The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +8% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 12:54 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +10% HOU | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 11:38 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +7% ARI | HOU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 10:48 | The Cardinals fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% HOU | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 8:12 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marquise Brown), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3869 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 | +7% HOU | HOU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:35 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +16% HOU | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Noah Brown (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts
- Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Denzel Perryman (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Michael Wilson (ARI WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Jonathan Ledbetter (ARI DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Dennis Daley (ARI T), out · 0.3 pts
- Elijah Wilkinson (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 27% · Texans 73%
- Final margin
- Texans by 5
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for the Texans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texans by 3.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 25% · Texans 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · 
Cardinals · 
Texans
More from Week 11 2023
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 34–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bears at Lions DET 31–26 · replay 65% for the winner
- Cowboys at Panthers DAL 33–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Chargers at Packers GB 23–20 · replay 55% for the winner
- Raiders at Dolphins MIA 20–13 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Commanders NYG 31–19 · replay 46% for the winner
- Steelers at Browns CLE 13–10 · replay 29% for the winner
- Titans at Jaguars JAX 34–14 · replay 83% for the winner
- Buccaneers at 49ers SF 27–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 32–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 17–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Vikings at Broncos DEN 21–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Eagles at Chiefs PHI 21–17 · replay 45% for the winner