luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Steelers at Browns, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Steelers 13–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Browns win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:35 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 15, worth 14 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 10
Cleveland Browns 13

November 19, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +54 Browns lucky · −54 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 5, Browns win 5.

  1. 1 PIT 27 CLE 6
  2. 2 PIT 17 CLE 3
  3. 3 PIT 26 CLE 16
  4. 4 PIT 18 CLE 12
  5. 5 PIT 15 CLE 13
  6. 6 PIT 21 CLE 23
  7. 7 PIT 5 CLE 10
  8. 8 PIT 6 CLE 16
  9. 9 PIT 0 CLE 14
  10. 10 PIT 3 CLE 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 54% of them, Browns 46%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+10.7%
Steelers by 9–1615.2%
Steelers by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation6.6%
Browns by 1–820.7%
Browns by 9–1615.1%
Browns by 17+8.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 3.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Boswell, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 6:47 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 22 flags in 3860 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% CLE CLE: Turnover
2 Q3 5:23 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% PIT PIT: Punt
3 Q3 1:35 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% PIT CLE: Punt
4 Q3 0:01 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedD. Njoku dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 116 catchable balls before this +7% PIT CLE: Punt
5 Q4 14:09 The Steelers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
6 Q4 12:13 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q4 7:40 Illegal Use of Hands on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% PIT PIT: Punt
8 Q4 1:32 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% CLE PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Keanu Neal (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Montravius Adams (PIT NT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 14% · Browns 86%

Final margin
Browns by 3
Luck in points
0.7 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 54% · Browns 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Steelers · Browns

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