luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Steelers at Browns, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Steelers 13–10, but the replays lean toward the Steelers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:40 left): Illegal Use of Hands on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 10
Cleveland Browns 13

November 19, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +71 Browns very lucky · −71 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 7, Browns win 3.

  1. 1 PIT 25 CLE 0
  2. 2 PIT 23 CLE 6
  3. 3 PIT 20 CLE 6
  4. 4 PIT 17 CLE 7
  5. 5 PIT 27 CLE 20
  6. 6 PIT 21 CLE 17
  7. 7 PIT 22 CLE 20
  8. 8 PIT 5 CLE 8
  9. 9 PIT 20 CLE 27
  10. 10 PIT 7 CLE 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 71% of them, Browns 29%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+21.6%
Steelers by 9–1622.3%
Steelers by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation4.5%
Browns by 1–814.2%
Browns by 9–168.8%
Browns by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Browns by 3, without the luck Browns by 4.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 6 for 46 yards, Browns 1 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:17 Face Mask on the Steelers (Patrick Peterson), 6 yards +3% CLE +0.8 pts
Q2 13:21 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 3:14 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 5 yards +1% CLE +0.2 pts
Q3 6:47 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% CLE +1.0 pts
Q3 3:19 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 15 yards +5% CLE +1.6 pts
Q4 7:40 Illegal Use of Hands on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% PIT +2.3 pts
Q4 0:20 Defensive Delay of Game on the Steelers (Keeanu Benton), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CLE +0.5 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 6:47 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 22 flags in 3860 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% CLE CLE: Turnover
2 Q3 1:35 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +6% PIT CLE: Punt
3 Q3 0:01 D. Njoku dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 116 catchable balls before this +7% PIT CLE: Punt
4 Q4 14:09 The Steelers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q4 12:13 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% PIT PIT: Field goal
6 Q4 7:40 Illegal Use of Hands on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% PIT PIT: Punt
7 Q4 1:32 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% CLE PIT: Punt
8 Q4 0:05 D. Hopkins made a 34-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +6% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Keanu Neal (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Montravius Adams (PIT NT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 8% · Browns 92%

Final margin
Browns by 3
Luck in points
1.6 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 4.6
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 71% · Browns 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Steelers · Browns

More from Week 11 2023