luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Titans at Jaguars, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Titans 34–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:49 left): the Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recovered, worth 8 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Tennessee Titans 14
Jacksonville Jaguars 34

November 19, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −6.5

Luck index +26 Jaguars lucky · −26 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 3, Jaguars win 7.

  1. 1 TEN 34 JAX 17
  2. 2 TEN 21 JAX 14
  3. 3 TEN 27 JAX 24
  4. 4 TEN 14 JAX 16
  5. 5 TEN 20 JAX 24
  6. 6 TEN 17 JAX 24
  7. 7 TEN 14 JAX 24
  8. 8 TEN 17 JAX 31
  9. 9 TEN 19 JAX 38
  10. 10 TEN 9 JAX 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 26% of them, Jaguars 74%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+3.1%
Titans by 9–166.5%
Titans by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation4.2%
Jaguars by 1–826.1%
Jaguars by 9–1622.2%
Jaguars by 17+23.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 9.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 25 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:10 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +6% JAX TEN: Punt
2 Q1 11:34 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% JAX JAX: Punt
3 Q1 7:49 The Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% JAX TEN: Punt
4 Q1 6:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Roger McCreary), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1634 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:58 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% TEN TEN: Punt
6 Q2 12:26 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% TEN TEN: Punt
7 Q2 10:10 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% JAX TEN: Punt
8 Q2 5:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Roger McCreary), 27 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1634 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% JAX JAX: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TEN CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Andre Dillard (TEN T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 3% · Jaguars 97%

Final margin
Jaguars by 20
Luck in points
10.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Titans 26% · Jaguars 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Titans · Jaguars

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