luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Chargers at Packers, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Chargers 23–20, but the Chargers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 5.3 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:30 left): Q. Johnston dropped a catchable pass, worth 48 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 20
Green Bay Packers 23

November 19, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +67 Packers very lucky · −67 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 7, Packers win 3.

  1. 1 LAC 40 GB 14
  2. 2 LAC 33 GB 13
  3. 3 LAC 20 GB 6
  4. 4 LAC 23 GB 14
  5. 5 LAC 29 GB 22
  6. 6 LAC 17 GB 13
  7. 7 LAC 13 GB 11
  8. 8 LAC 31 GB 34
  9. 9 LAC 20 GB 28
  10. 10 LAC 10 GB 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 67% of them, Packers 33%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+20.1%
Chargers by 9–1621.0%
Chargers by 1–825.7%
Level after regulation3.4%
Packers by 1–815.6%
Packers by 9–168.9%
Packers by 17+5.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 10.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • A. Carlson, 52 yds missed · 68% expected
  • A. Carlson, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Dicker, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:25 The Chargers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +19% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:51 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedK. Allen dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 159 catchable balls before this +12% GB LAC: Field goal
3 Q3 4:51 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +14% LAC GB: Punt
4 Q4 12:54 The Chargers fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% GB LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:29 The Chargers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +14% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 2543 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +12% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:20 The Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +30% LAC LAC: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:30 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedQ. Johnston dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 23 catchable balls before this +48% GB LAC: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rudy Ford (GB FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Gerald Everett (LAC TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Guyton (LAC WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 87% · Packers 13%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
13.2 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 10.2
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 67% · Packers 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Chargers · Packers

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