luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Chargers at Packers, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Chargers 23–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Packers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 81 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:30 left): Q. Johnston dropped a catchable pass, worth 55 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 20
Green Bay Packers 23

November 19, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +45 Packers lucky · −45 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 4, Packers win 6.

  1. 1 LAC 31 GB 10
  2. 2 LAC 25 GB 13
  3. 3 LAC 30 GB 23
  4. 4 LAC 31 GB 29
  5. 5 LAC 31 GB 33
  6. 6 LAC 20 GB 24
  7. 7 LAC 10 GB 17
  8. 8 LAC 14 GB 24
  9. 9 LAC 31 GB 45
  10. 10 LAC 20 GB 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 45% of them, Packers 55%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+9.6%
Chargers by 9–1613.9%
Chargers by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation5.5%
Packers by 1–822.7%
Packers by 9–1616.1%
Packers by 17+11.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.3 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 3, without the luck Chargers by 13.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Carlson, 52 yds missed · 68% expected
  • A. Carlson, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Dicker, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 4 for 54 yards, Packers 6 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Dallin Leavitt), 8 yards +1% LAC +0.5 pts
Q2 10:46 Face Mask on the Chargers (Austin Johnson), 15 yards +6% GB +1.8 pts
Q2 8:12 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 3:49 False Start on the Packers (Christian Watson), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LAC +0.6 pts
Q4 11:14 Intentional Grounding on the Packers (Jordan Love), 9 yards +3% LAC +0.8 pts
Q4 9:03 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Stone Smartt), 10 yards +7% GB +1.1 pts
Q4 7:40 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% GB +0.8 pts
Q4 3:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 24 yards +12% GB +2.8 pts
Q4 1:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 4 yards +5% LAC +0.3 pts
Q4 0:23 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC 0.0 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:02 The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:51 K. Allen dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 159 catchable balls before this +11% GB LAC: Field goal
3 Q3 2:34 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q4 12:54 The Chargers fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% GB LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:29 The Chargers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +12% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 2543 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +12% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:20 The Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% LAC LAC: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:30 Q. Johnston dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 23 catchable balls before this +55% GB LAC: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rudy Ford (GB FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Gerald Everett (LAC TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Guyton (LAC WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 96% · Packers 4%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
16.3 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 13.3
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 45% · Packers 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Chargers · Packers

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