AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Chargers have won 58 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 63.5. Luck cost them 5.5 wins. Their luckiest season was 2024 (+2.1 wins), the unluckiest 2019 (−6.0).
2026: 0–8 so far, replay wins 1.7 (−1.7 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0–8 | 1.7 | −1.7 | 0–3 | +0.73 | – |
| 2025 | 11–6 | 10.1 | +0.9 | 6–2 | +1.29 | 0–1 |
| 2024 | 11–6 | 8.9 | +2.1 | 4–4 | −0.15 | 0–1 |
| 2023 | 5–12 | 6.3 | −1.3 | 3–8 | −0.12 | – |
| 2022 | 10–7 | 8.3 | +1.7 | 7–5 | +0.06 | 0–1 |
| 2021 | 9–8 | 10.7 | −1.7 | 5–5 | −0.77 | – |
| 2020 | 7–9 | 8.2 | −1.2 | 5–7 | +1.86 | – |
| 2019 | 5–11 | 11.0 | −6.0 | 2–9 | −0.42 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +0.9 | −0.42 | +0.05 | +0.51 | +0.64 | −0.13 | +0.18 |
| 2024 | +2.1 | +0.41 | +0.59 | −0.23 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.05 |
| 2023 | −1.3 | −0.03 | +0.59 | −0.58 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.54 |
| 2022 | +1.7 | −0.17 | +0.91 | +0.29 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.19 |
| 2021 | −1.7 | +0.19 | −1.09 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.51 | +0.18 |
| 2020 | −1.2 | −0.13 | −1.10 | 0.00 | +0.93 | +0.15 | −0.37 |
| 2019 | −6.0 | −0.90 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −0.27 | −0.28 |
| Since 2019 | −5.5 | −1.05 | +1.15 | −0.01 | +0.88 | +0.14 | −0.68 |
Are the Chargers lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Chargers have won 58 regular-season games from play worth 63.5: −5.5 wins of luck, the 6th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Chargers had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from fumble bounces (−1.1 wins) and 3rd & 4th downs (−0.7 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 32–40 since 2019, where the replays give them 37.9 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Chargers’ luckiest season?
2024: 11–6 from play worth 8.9 wins, +2.1 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2019: 5–11 from play worth 11.0 (−6.0).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Chargers’ luckiest wins
Wins the Chargers take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 14 | vs Falcons | W 20–17 | 23% | +77 |
| 2020 Week 16 | vs Broncos | W 19–16 | 28% | +72 |
| 2022 Week 9 | @ Falcons | W 20–17 | 31% | +69 |
| 2024 Week 11 | vs Bengals | W 34–27 | 31% | +69 |
| 2020 Week 15 | @ Raiders | W 30–27 | 32% | +68 |
The Chargers’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Chargers would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 13 | @ Broncos | L 20–23 | 87% | −87 |
| 2019 Week 6 | vs Steelers | L 17–24 | 84% | −84 |
| 2020 Week 8 | @ Broncos | L 30–31 | 83% | −83 |
| 2025 Week 4 | @ Giants | L 18–21 | 82% | −82 |
| 2019 Week 7 | @ Titans | L 20–23 | 80% | −80 |
