AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Chargers have won 58 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 63.6. Luck cost them 5.6 wins. Their luckiest season was 2024 (+2.5 wins), the unluckiest 2019 (−5.8).
2026: 0–2 so far, replay wins 0.8 (−0.8 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0–2 | 0.8 | −0.8 | 0–0 | −0.07 | – |
| 2025 | 11–6 | 10.3 | +0.7 | 6–2 | +1.46 | 0–1 |
| 2024 | 11–6 | 8.5 | +2.5 | 4–4 | +0.86 | 0–1 |
| 2023 | 5–12 | 6.8 | −1.8 | 3–8 | +0.38 | – |
| 2022 | 10–7 | 8.2 | +1.8 | 7–5 | +0.91 | 0–1 |
| 2021 | 9–8 | 10.8 | −1.8 | 5–5 | −1.41 | – |
| 2020 | 7–9 | 8.1 | −1.1 | 5–7 | +1.39 | – |
| 2019 | 5–11 | 10.8 | −5.8 | 2–9 | +0.07 | – |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Chargers take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 14 | vs Falcons | W 20–17 | 23% | +77 |
| 2024 Week 13 | @ Falcons | W 17–13 | 23% | +77 |
| 2020 Week 16 | vs Broncos | W 19–16 | 27% | +73 |
| 2020 Week 15 | @ Raiders | W 30–27 | 32% | +68 |
| 2022 Week 6 | vs Broncos | W 19–16 | 32% | +68 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Chargers would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 4 | @ Giants | L 18–21 | 90% | −90 |
| 2019 Week 13 | @ Broncos | L 20–23 | 86% | −86 |
| 2019 Week 6 | vs Steelers | L 17–24 | 83% | −83 |
| 2020 Week 8 | @ Broncos | L 30–31 | 82% | −82 |
| 2019 Week 7 | @ Titans | L 20–23 | 80% | −80 |
