2024 season · final
Los Angeles Chargers, 2024: game by game
The Chargers went 11–6 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.9 wins. Luck added 2.1: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.5.
Every game
How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Raiders | W 22–10 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 2 | @ Panthers | W 26–3 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 3 | @ Steelers | L 10–20 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 4 | vs Chiefs | L 10–17 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 6 | @ Broncos | W 23–16 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 7 | @ Cardinals | L 15–17 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 8 | vs Saints | W 26–8 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 9 | @ Browns | W 27–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 10 | vs Titans | W 27–17 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 11 | vs Bengals | W 34–27 | 31% | +69 |
| Week 12 | vs Ravens | L 23–30 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 13 | @ Falcons | W 17–13 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 14 | @ Chiefs | L 17–19 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 15 | vs Buccaneers | L 17–40 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 16 | vs Broncos | W 34–27 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 17 | @ Patriots | W 40–7 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 18 | @ Raiders | W 34–20 | 95% | +5 |
| Wild Card | @ Texans | L 12–32 | 53% | −53 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.59 | +23.0 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.41 | +10.1 |
| Injuries | +0.07 | +2.9 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.05 | +3.9 |
| Judgment calls | −0.08 | +6.5 |
| Drops | −0.23 | −6.2 |