2024 season · final
Los Angeles Chargers, 2024: game by game
The Chargers went 11–6 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.5 wins. Luck added 2.5: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.5.
Every game
How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Raiders | W 22–10 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 2 | @ Panthers | W 26–3 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 3 | @ Steelers | L 10–20 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 4 | vs Chiefs | L 10–17 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 6 | @ Broncos | W 23–16 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 7 | @ Cardinals | L 15–17 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 8 | vs Saints | W 26–8 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 9 | @ Browns | W 27–10 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 10 | vs Titans | W 27–17 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 11 | vs Bengals | W 34–27 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 12 | vs Ravens | L 23–30 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 13 | @ Falcons | W 17–13 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 14 | @ Chiefs | L 17–19 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 15 | vs Buccaneers | L 17–40 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 16 | vs Broncos | W 34–27 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 17 | @ Patriots | W 40–7 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 18 | @ Raiders | W 34–20 | 87% | +13 |
| Wild Card | @ Texans | L 12–32 | 54% | −54 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +24.5 | +1.44 |
| Judgment calls | +14.6 | +0.86 |
| Fumble bounces | +7.9 | +0.46 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +4.8 | +0.29 |
| Injuries | +3.8 | +0.22 |
| Rest | −1.0 | −0.06 |
| Drops | −7.0 | −0.41 |