2025 season · final
Los Angeles Chargers, 2025: game by game
The Chargers went 11–6 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.
Every game
How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Chiefs | W 27–21 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 2 | @ Raiders | W 20–9 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 3 | vs Broncos | W 23–20 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 4 | @ Giants | L 18–21 | 82% | −82 |
| Week 5 | vs Commanders | L 10–27 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 6 | @ Dolphins | W 29–27 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 7 | vs Colts | L 24–38 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 8 | vs Vikings | W 37–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 9 | @ Titans | W 27–20 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 10 | vs Steelers | W 25–10 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 11 | @ Jaguars | L 6–35 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 13 | vs Raiders | W 31–14 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 14 | vs Eagles | W 22–19 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 15 | @ Chiefs | W 16–13 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 16 | @ Cowboys | W 34–17 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 17 | vs Texans | L 16–20 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 18 | @ Broncos | L 3–19 | 4% | −4 |
| Wild Card | @ Patriots | L 3–16 | 8% | −8 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.64 | +12.7 |
| Drops | +0.51 | +5.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.18 | +16.4 |
| Kicks | +0.05 | +3.8 |
| Rest | +0.02 | +1.2 |
| Injuries | −0.13 | −7.4 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.42 | −14.8 |