2025 season · final
Los Angeles Chargers, 2025: game by game
The Chargers went 11–6 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.3 wins. Luck added 0.7: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.0.
Every game
How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Chiefs | W 27–21 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 2 | @ Raiders | W 20–9 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 3 | vs Broncos | W 23–20 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 4 | @ Giants | L 18–21 | 90% | −90 |
| Week 5 | vs Commanders | L 10–27 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 6 | @ Dolphins | W 29–27 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 7 | vs Colts | L 24–38 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 8 | vs Vikings | W 37–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 9 | @ Titans | W 27–20 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 10 | vs Steelers | W 25–10 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 11 | @ Jaguars | L 6–35 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 13 | vs Raiders | W 31–14 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 14 | vs Eagles | W 22–19 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 15 | @ Chiefs | W 16–13 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 16 | @ Cowboys | W 34–17 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 17 | vs Texans | L 16–20 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 18 | @ Broncos | L 3–19 | 10% | −10 |
| Wild Card | @ Patriots | L 3–16 | 4% | −4 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +24.8 | +1.46 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +15.4 | +0.90 |
| Drops | +7.2 | +0.43 |
| Kicks | +3.7 | +0.22 |
| Rest | +1.2 | +0.07 |
| Injuries | −9.9 | −0.58 |
| Fumble bounces | −11.0 | −0.65 |