luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Steelers at Chargers, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Steelers 25–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:14 left): C. Boswell missed a 45-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 10
Los Angeles Chargers 25

November 9, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +23 Chargers about even · −23 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Chargers win 8.

  1. 1 PIT 24 LAC 9
  2. 2 PIT 31 LAC 27
  3. 3 PIT 13 LAC 15
  4. 4 PIT 16 LAC 20
  5. 5 PIT 14 LAC 22
  6. 6 PIT 6 LAC 16
  7. 7 PIT 12 LAC 26
  8. 8 PIT 20 LAC 37
  9. 9 PIT 16 LAC 37
  10. 10 PIT 20 LAC 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 23% of them, Chargers 77%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+2.9%
Steelers by 9–166.3%
Steelers by 1–813.0%
Level after regulation1.5%
Chargers by 1–823.1%
Chargers by 9–1620.8%
Chargers by 17+32.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 15, without the luck Chargers by 14.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 59 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. Boswell, 45 yds missed · 92% expected
  • C. Dicker, 32 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 59 yds made · 69% expected
  • C. Dicker, 55 yds missed · 74% expected
  • C. Dicker, 42 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 4 for 29 yards, Chargers 8 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Chargers (Cameron Dicker), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT 0.0 pts
Q1 15:00 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.7 pts
Q1 3:42 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 14:16 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 9 yards, wiping out the play +5% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 4:30 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +3% PIT +1.0 pts
Q3 14:54 False Start on the Chargers (Tucker Fisk), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q3 14:54 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.7 pts
Q3 8:48 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers (Marlowe Wax), 10 yards +2% PIT +0.8 pts
Q3 6:07 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Trey Sermon), 10 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q3 3:19 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +1% LAC +1.0 pts
Q4 8:53 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 5 yards 0% PIT +0.5 pts
Q4 7:11 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% PIT +2.2 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:36 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% LAC PIT: Field goal
2 Q1 10:30 C. Boswell made a 59-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 70 of 84 from 45+ before +4% PIT PIT: Safety
3 Q2 14:16 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% LAC LAC: Field goal
4 Q2 13:46 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% LAC PIT: Missed field goal
5 Q2 13:14 C. Boswell missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him, 71 of 85 from 45+ before +13% LAC PIT: Punt
6 Q2 3:48 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% PIT LAC: Punt
7 Q2 2:16 The Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +6% LAC PIT: End of half
8 Q3 0:49 C. Dicker missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 35 of 41 from 45+ before +4% PIT LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tarheeb Still (LAC CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Joe Alt (LAC T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Bobby Hart (LAC T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tony Jefferson (LAC S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Omarion Hampton (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 2% · Chargers 98%

Final margin
Chargers by 15
Luck in points
0.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 14.3
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 23% · Chargers 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Steelers · Chargers

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