luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Patriots at Buccaneers, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Buccaneers 28–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Buccaneers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:25 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 23 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

New England Patriots 28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

November 9, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −2.5

Luck index +15 Patriots about even · −15 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 8, Buccaneers win 2.

  1. 1 NE 42 TB 9
  2. 2 NE 35 TB 10
  3. 3 NE 41 TB 22
  4. 4 NE 36 TB 19
  5. 5 NE 33 TB 20
  6. 6 NE 33 TB 23
  7. 7 NE 27 TB 20
  8. 8 NE 39 TB 37
  9. 9 NE 17 TB 20
  10. 10 NE 13 TB 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Buccaneers

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.

40 points apart for the Buccaneers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained +0.28 +0.13 better by 0.15
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.12 better by 0.16
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.15 worse by 0.20
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.28 +0.10 worse by 0.18

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 85% of them, Buccaneers 15%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+41.5%
Patriots by 9–1622.4%
Patriots by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation1.6%
Buccaneers by 1–89.6%
Buccaneers by 9–163.7%
Buccaneers by 17+1.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 3.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:02 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +16% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:19 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:23 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% NE NE: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 12:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Sterling Shepard), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 2664 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +20% NE NE: Punt
5 Q4 7:27 The Patriots converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +13% NE NE: Turnover
6 Q4 5:25 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +23% TB NE: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:00 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +9% NE TB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:55 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +22% NE TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Luke Haggard (TB T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Haason Reddick (TB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kayshon Boutte (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Elliss (NE LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 32% · Buccaneers 68%

Final margin
Patriots by 5
Luck in points
8.3 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 85% · Buccaneers 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Patriots · Buccaneers

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