luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Patriots at Buccaneers, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Buccaneers 28–23, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:55 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 22 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

November 9, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −2.5

Luck index +29 Patriots lucky · −29 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 7, Buccaneers win 3.

  1. 1 NE 45 TB 20
  2. 2 NE 45 TB 26
  3. 3 NE 37 TB 23
  4. 4 NE 38 TB 27
  5. 5 NE 27 TB 20
  6. 6 NE 28 TB 24
  7. 7 NE 26 TB 24
  8. 8 NE 38 TB 41
  9. 9 NE 23 TB 32
  10. 10 NE 21 TB 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 71% of them, Buccaneers 29%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+25.2%
Patriots by 9–1620.4%
Patriots by 1–822.7%
Level after regulation4.4%
Buccaneers by 1–814.9%
Buccaneers by 9–167.4%
Buccaneers by 17+5.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.1 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 5, without the luck Buccaneers by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Patriots 5 for 49 yards, Buccaneers 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:22 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Brenden Schooler), 10 yards +3% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 13:22 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Charles Woods), 7 yards +2% TB +0.6 pts
Q2 12:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Benjamin Morrison), 10 yards +2% NE +0.7 pts
Q2 6:30 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (YaYa Diaby), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% TB 0.0 pts
Q2 5:59 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 2:58 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 11:54 False Start on the Buccaneers (Sean Tucker), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.4 pts
Q3 10:12 Illegal Blindside Block on the Buccaneers (Christian Izien), 7 yards +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q3 8:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Christian Gonzalez), 22 yards +3% TB +1.6 pts
Q4 12:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Sterling Shepard), 10 yards, wiping out the play +20% NE +2.4 pts
Q4 6:39 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Chris Braswell), 3 yards +3% NE +0.6 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:02 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +9% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:19 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:23 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% NE NE: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 1:19 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% TB NE: Punt
5 Q4 12:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Sterling Shepard), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 2664 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +20% NE NE: Punt
6 Q4 7:27 The Patriots converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% NE NE: Turnover
7 Q4 2:00 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +9% NE TB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:55 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +22% NE TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Luke Haggard (TB T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Haason Reddick (TB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kayshon Boutte (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Elliss (NE LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 35% · Buccaneers 65%

Final margin
Patriots by 5
Luck in points
7.1 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 71% · Buccaneers 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Patriots · Buccaneers

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