luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2026 NFL season · October 29, 2026–November 2

Week 8 2026: who deserved to win

2 of 14 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Cardinals beat the Cowboys 33–30 in a game they win 36% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 8 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cardinals 33–30 @ Cowboys 30% 36% Lucky
Bears 34–17 @ Seahawks 41% 68% Deserved
Raiders 38–33 @ Jets 46% 49% Coin flip

Week 8 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Broncos W 28–24 vs Chiefs 24% +76
2 Cardinals W 33–30 @ Cowboys 36% +64
3 Patriots W 24–19 @ Dolphins 42% +58
4 Raiders W 38–33 @ Jets 49% +51
5 Packers W 27–19 vs Panthers 54% +46
6 Bears W 34–17 @ Seahawks 68% +32
7 Buccaneers W 16–0 vs Falcons 71% +29
8 Steelers W 27–6 vs Browns 77% +23
9 Lions W 19–15 vs Vikings 88% +12
10 Commanders W 27–10 vs Eagles 93% +7
11 Rams W 24–9 vs Chargers 93% +7
12 Bengals W 43–36 vs Titans 94% +6
13 Jaguars W 42–7 vs Colts 96% +4
14 Bills W 36–10 vs Ravens 98% +2
15 Ravens L 10–36 @ Bills 2% −2
16 Colts L 7–42 @ Jaguars 4% −4
17 Titans L 36–43 @ Bengals 6% −6
18 Chargers L 9–24 @ Rams 7% −7
19 Eagles L 10–27 @ Commanders 7% −7
20 Vikings L 15–19 @ Lions 12% −12
21 Browns L 6–27 @ Steelers 23% −23
22 Falcons L 0–16 @ Buccaneers 29% −29
23 Seahawks L 17–34 vs Bears 32% −32
24 Panthers L 19–27 @ Packers 46% −46
25 Jets L 33–38 vs Raiders 51% −51
26 Dolphins L 19–24 vs Patriots 58% −58
27 Cowboys L 30–33 vs Cardinals 64% −64
28 Chiefs L 24–28 @ Broncos 76% −76