2026 season · in progress

New England Patriots, 2026: game by game

The Patriots went 5–4 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–2.

Every game

How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Seahawks	L 10–13	23%	−23
Week 2	vs Steelers	W 20–3	90%	+10
Week 3	@ Jaguars	L 6–35	7%	−7
Week 4	@ Bills	W 29–26	77%	+23
Week 5	vs Raiders	W 45–17	98%	+2
Week 6	vs Jets	W 26–19	55%	+45
Week 7	@ Bears	L 24–30	60%	−60
Week 8	@ Dolphins	W 24–19	42%	+58
Week 9	vs Packers	L 27–45	35%	−35

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −23 @ SEA

Wk 2 +10 vs PIT

Wk 3 −7 @ JAX

Wk 4 +23 @ BUF

Wk 5 +2 vs LV

Wk 6 +45 vs NYJ

Wk 7 −60 @ CHI

Wk 8 +58 @ MIA

Wk 9 −35 vs GB

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Patriots win chance
Week 10 · Nov 15	vs Lions	Lions by 0.8	48%
Week 12 · Nov 29	at Chargers	Patriots by 7.3	71%
Week 13 · Dec 6	vs Bills	Bills by 0.2	49%
Week 14 · Dec 10	vs Vikings	Patriots by 5.1	65%
Week 15 · Dec 21	at Chiefs	Chiefs by 3.1	41%
Week 16 · Dec 27	at Jets	Patriots by 4.8	64%
Week 17 · Jan 3	vs Broncos	Patriots by 3.8	61%
Week 18 · Jan 10	vs Dolphins	Patriots by 10.9	79%

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Drops	+0.36	+9.7
3rd & 4th downs	+0.28	+9.0
Judgment calls	−0.06	−2.2
Injuries	−0.06	−2.4
Kicks	−0.10	−4.2
Fumble bounces	−0.11	−4.8