Referee calls · 2019–2026
Do refs favor the Patriots?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.02 points a game to the Patriots since 2019, 18th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −0.04 points a game over 6 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
Call luck, season by season
Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Patriots minus the calls that hurt them.
Biggest calls for the Patriots
- Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 15 · 26 pts of win probability
- Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers, 10 yards · 2022 Week 4 · 23 pts of win probability
- Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers, 9 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 4 · 22 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 8 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 10 · 22 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Tyrann Mathieu), 16 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 4 · 21 pts of win probability
Biggest calls against
- Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Danny Shelton), 15 yards · 2019 Week 17 · 29 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 6 · 26 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 6 · 24 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 8 · 21 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Julian Edelman), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 16 · 21 pts of win probability
Questions
Do refs favor the Patriots?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.02 points a game to the Patriots since 2019, 18th of 32 teams.
What about the playoffs?
In the playoffs: −0.04 points a game over 6 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
How is this measured?
Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.
Is it more than chance?
Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.
All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · New England Patriots, every season