2020 season · final
New England Patriots, 2020: game by game
The Patriots went 7–9 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.
Every game
How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Dolphins | W 21–11 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 2 | @ Seahawks | L 30–35 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 3 | vs Raiders | W 36–20 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 4 | @ Chiefs | L 10–26 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 6 | vs Broncos | L 12–18 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 7 | vs 49ers | L 6–33 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 8 | @ Bills | L 21–24 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 9 | @ Jets | W 30–27 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 10 | vs Ravens | W 23–17 | 93% | +8 |
| Week 11 | @ Texans | L 20–27 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 12 | vs Cardinals | W 20–17 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 13 | @ Chargers | W 45–0 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 14 | @ Rams | L 3–24 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 15 | @ Dolphins | L 12–22 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 16 | vs Bills | L 9–38 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 17 | vs Jets | W 28–14 | 58% | +42 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +14.6 | +0.92 |
| Injuries | +12.9 | +0.81 |
| Kicks | +10.9 | +0.68 |
| Fumble bounces | +9.4 | +0.59 |
| Rest | −1.0 | −0.06 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −1.1 | −0.07 |