2020 season · final

New England Patriots, 2020: game by game

The Patriots went 7–9 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.

Every game

How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Dolphins	W 21–11	83%	+17
Week 2	@ Seahawks	L 30–35	45%	−45
Week 3	vs Raiders	W 36–20	60%	+40
Week 4	@ Chiefs	L 10–26	16%	−16
Week 6	vs Broncos	L 12–18	53%	−53
Week 7	vs 49ers	L 6–33	16%	−16
Week 8	@ Bills	L 21–24	10%	−10
Week 9	@ Jets	W 30–27	60%	+40
Week 10	vs Ravens	W 23–17	93%	+7
Week 11	@ Texans	L 20–27	45%	−45
Week 12	vs Cardinals	W 20–17	35%	+65
Week 13	@ Chargers	W 45–0	55%	+45
Week 14	@ Rams	L 3–24	22%	−22
Week 15	@ Dolphins	L 12–22	24%	−24
Week 16	vs Bills	L 9–38	7%	−7
Week 17	vs Jets	W 28–14	57%	+43

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +17 vs MIA

Wk 2 −45 @ SEA

Wk 3 +40 vs LV

Wk 4 −16 @ KC

Wk 6 −53 vs DEN

Wk 7 −16 vs SF

Wk 8 −10 @ BUF

Wk 9 +40 @ NYJ

Wk 10 +7 vs BAL

Wk 11 −45 @ HOU

Wk 12 +65 vs ARI

Wk 13 +45 @ LAC

Wk 14 −22 @ LA

Wk 15 −24 @ MIA

Wk 16 −7 vs BUF

Wk 17 +43 vs NYJ

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.85	+11.0
Injuries	+0.28	+9.7
Judgment calls	+0.25	+6.5
Fumble bounces	+0.08	+12.2
Rest	−0.02	−1.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.11	−2.6