luckadjusted

Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Chargers, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Chargers 45–0, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 6.5 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:18 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 12 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 45
Los Angeles Chargers 0

December 6, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +47 Patriots lucky · −47 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 5, Chargers win 5.

  1. 1 NE 23 LAC 3
  2. 2 NE 30 LAC 17
  3. 3 NE 14 LAC 6
  4. 4 NE 14 LAC 9
  5. 5 NE 16 LAC 14
  6. 6 NE 20 LAC 22
  7. 7 NE 9 LAC 13
  8. 8 NE 14 LAC 22
  9. 9 NE 10 LAC 23
  10. 10 NE 12 LAC 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 53% of them, Chargers 47%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 45.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+11.2%
Patriots by 9–1614.9%
Patriots by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation6.3%
Chargers by 1–823.8%
Chargers by 9–1614.0%
Chargers by 17+7.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 45. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 29.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 46 yds missed · 77% expected
  • M. Badgley, 58 yds blocked · 57% expected
  • N. Folk, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:27 The Patriots converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:19 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% NE LAC: Missed field goal
3 Q1 3:35 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +6% LAC LAC: Missed field goal
4 Q1 2:10 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% NE LAC: Missed field goal
5 Q1 1:30 M. Badgley missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 6 of 12 from 45+ before +7% NE LAC: Opp touchdown
6 Q2 14:18 Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +12% NE NE: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 1:14 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:03 M. Badgley had a 58-yard field goal blockedKicks · 57% expected for him, 6 of 13 from 45+ before +7% NE LAC: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sam Tevi (LAC T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kyzir White (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Groy (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Julian Edelman (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 100% · Chargers 0%

Final margin
Patriots by 45
Luck in points
15.6 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 29.4
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 53% · Chargers 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · Patriots · Chargers

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