The luckiest and unluckiest teams of 2020

#	Team	Record	Replay wins	Luck in wins	One-score	Coin-flip wins	Through the season
1	Chiefs	14–2	9.9	+4.1	8–1	11.5
2	Dolphins	10–6	6.7	+3.3	3–4	8.1
3	Bears	8–8	4.8	+3.2	6–5	6.7
4	Steelers	12–4	9.6	+2.4	7–2	9.5
5	Browns	11–5	8.8	+2.2	7–2	10.6
6	Seahawks	12–4	10.1	+1.9	8–3	10.3
7	Bills	13–3	11.2	+1.8	5–1	12.1
8	Saints	12–4	10.4	+1.6	5–3	13.4
9	Packers	13–3	11.5	+1.5	4–2	12.1
10	Titans	11–5	9.7	+1.3	7–2	10.3
11	Washington	7–9	6.0	+1.0	3–5	7.9
12	Bengals	4–11–1	3.6	+0.9	2–5–1	5.5
13	Ravens	11–5	10.2	+0.8	2–4	11.8
14	Colts	11–5	10.6	+0.4	5–2	11.5
15	Patriots	7–9	6.7	+0.3	3–4	7.1
16	Buccaneers	11–5	10.7	+0.3	3–3	10.4
17	Eagles	4–11–1	4.9	−0.4	3–5–1	3.4
18	Broncos	5–11	5.7	−0.7	4–6	4.6
19	Giants	6–10	6.8	−0.8	5–5	6.0
20	Cardinals	8–8	9.0	−1.0	4–5	9.3
21	Chargers	7–9	8.1	−1.1	5–7	6.8
22	Rams	10–6	11.2	−1.2	4–4	9.9
23	Jets	2–14	3.4	−1.4	2–4	3.2
24	Vikings	7–9	8.5	−1.5	6–4	7.8
25	Lions	5–11	6.6	−1.6	4–4	4.8
26	Cowboys	6–10	7.6	−1.6	4–4	6.6
27	Raiders	8–8	9.8	−1.8	5–4	6.0
28	Falcons	4–12	6.0	−2.0	2–8	5.9
29	Jaguars	1–15	3.3	−2.3	1–6	3.3
30	Texans	4–12	6.6	−2.6	2–8	5.6
31	Panthers	5–11	8.4	−3.4	3–8	6.8
32	49ers	6–10	9.7	−3.7	3–5	7.5

Replay wins: the sum, over every game, of how often the team wins a replay with the same day’s form. Coin-flip wins: the same with only kicks, bounces, drops, conversions and calls re-rolled; it is the number that best predicts the rest of a season (validation). One-score: games decided by 8 points or fewer.

Did luck add wins or take them away?

Each logo is a team. Across: the wins its play was worth (replay wins). Up: the wins it actually got. On the diagonal the two match; above it, luck added wins; below it, luck cost wins.

Luck added wins Luck cost wins 02468101214 02468101214 Wins their play was worth (replay wins) Actual wins

Game by game

The luck index of every game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game they win 9 times in 10 scores −90. Teams sorted luckiest to unluckiest.