luckadjusted

Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Panthers, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Panthers 34–30, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:23 left): the Panthers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 22 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 34
Carolina Panthers 30

September 13, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3

Luck index +14 Raiders about even · −14 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 9, Panthers win 1.

  1. 1 LV 33 CAR 3
  2. 2 LV 28 CAR 6
  3. 3 LV 31 CAR 13
  4. 4 LV 34 CAR 19
  5. 5 LV 41 CAR 29
  6. 6 LV 23 CAR 13
  7. 7 LV 21 CAR 14
  8. 8 LV 27 CAR 23
  9. 9 LV 23 CAR 20
  10. 10 LV 16 CAR 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 86% of them, Panthers 14%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+35.7%
Raiders by 9–1623.5%
Raiders by 1–825.8%
Level after regulation0.9%
Panthers by 1–89.2%
Panthers by 9–163.8%
Panthers by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 0.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • D. Carlson, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Slye, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 54 yds made · 62% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:17 The Panthers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% CAR CAR: Punt
2 Q2 8:16 D. Carlson made 20-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +17% CAR LV: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 25 yardsJudgment calls +8% CAR CAR: Field goal
4 Q2 2:00 The Raiders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +10% LV LV: Touchdown
5 Q3 9:43 D. Carlson made 54-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before +8% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 15:00 The Panthers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Tahir Whitehead), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1001 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +15% LV LV: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:23 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +22% LV CAR: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dennis Daley (CAR G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyrell Williams (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 47% · Panthers 53%

Final margin
Raiders by 4
Luck in points
3.7 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 86% · Panthers 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Raiders · Panthers

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