AFC West
Las Vegas Raiders: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Raiders have won 46 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 55.2. Luck cost them 9.2 wins. Their luckiest season was 2021 (+0.7 wins), the unluckiest 2025 (−3.6).
2026: 4–5 so far, replay wins 2.9 (+1.1 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4–5 | 2.9 | +1.1 | 2–2 | +0.25 | – |
| 2025 | 3–14 | 6.6 | −3.6 | 2–5 | +0.10 | – |
| 2024 | 4–13 | 6.3 | −2.3 | 3–4 | +0.19 | – |
| 2023 | 8–9 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 5–5 | +0.71 | – |
| 2022 | 6–11 | 7.3 | −1.3 | 4–9 | −0.92 | – |
| 2021 | 10–7 | 9.3 | +0.7 | 7–2 | +0.48 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 8–8 | 9.9 | −1.9 | 5–4 | −0.30 | – |
| 2019 | 7–9 | 8.1 | −1.1 | 7–3 | −1.23 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −3.6 | +0.09 | −0.51 | −0.21 | +0.05 | +0.28 | −0.30 |
| 2024 | −2.3 | −1.24 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.10 | +0.04 | −0.14 |
| 2023 | +0.3 | +0.46 | −0.49 | +0.07 | +0.36 | +0.11 | −0.25 |
| 2022 | −1.3 | +0.92 | +0.62 | −0.31 | −0.46 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2021 | +0.7 | +0.34 | +0.64 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.49 | −0.15 |
| 2020 | −1.9 | −0.16 | +0.94 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2019 | −1.1 | −0.20 | −0.28 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.17 | −0.03 |
| Since 2019 | −9.2 | +0.22 | +0.74 | −0.48 | −0.49 | +1.10 | −0.77 |
Are the Raiders lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Raiders have won 46 regular-season games from play worth 55.2: −9.2 wins of luck, the least of any NFL team.
Why have the Raiders had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from 3rd & 4th downs (−0.8 wins) and judgment calls (−0.5 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 33–32 since 2019, where the replays give them 35.7 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Raiders’ luckiest season?
2021: 10–7 from play worth 9.3 wins, +0.7 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2025: 3–14 from play worth 6.6 (−3.6).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Raiders’ luckiest wins
Wins the Raiders take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Week 2 | @ Ravens | W 26–23 | 15% | +85 |
| 2020 Week 2 | vs Saints | W 34–24 | 20% | +80 |
| 2022 Week 15 | vs Patriots | W 30–24 | 28% | +72 |
| 2019 Week 10 | vs Chargers | W 26–24 | 38% | +62 |
| 2019 Week 9 | vs Lions | W 31–24 | 39% | +61 |
The Raiders’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Raiders would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 16 | vs Dolphins | L 25–26 | 92% | −92 |
| 2019 Week 17 | @ Broncos | L 15–16 | 86% | −86 |
| 2021 Week 9 | @ Giants | L 16–23 | 86% | −86 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs Bears | L 24–25 | 82% | −82 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs Jaguars | L 29–30 | 77% | −77 |
