AFC West
Las Vegas Raiders: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Raiders have won 46 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 56.6. Luck cost them 10.6 wins. Their luckiest season was 2021 (+0.8 wins), the unluckiest 2025 (−3.8).
2026: 2–0 so far, replay wins 1.1 (+0.9 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2–0 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 0–0 | +4.62 | – |
| 2025 | 3–14 | 6.8 | −3.8 | 2–5 | −0.07 | – |
| 2024 | 4–13 | 6.8 | −2.8 | 3–4 | −0.18 | – |
| 2023 | 8–9 | 7.9 | +0.1 | 5–5 | +1.75 | – |
| 2022 | 6–11 | 8.0 | −2.0 | 4–9 | −1.36 | – |
| 2021 | 10–7 | 9.2 | +0.8 | 7–2 | −0.37 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 8–8 | 9.8 | −1.8 | 5–4 | −0.11 | – |
| 2019 | 7–9 | 8.1 | −1.1 | 7–3 | −2.11 | – |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Raiders take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Week 2 | @ Ravens | W 26–23 | 16% | +84 |
| 2020 Week 2 | vs Saints | W 34–24 | 19% | +81 |
| 2021 Week 12 | @ Cowboys | W 36–33 | 37% | +63 |
| 2019 Week 9 | vs Lions | W 31–24 | 40% | +60 |
| 2019 Week 10 | vs Chargers | W 26–24 | 41% | +59 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Raiders would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 16 | vs Dolphins | L 25–26 | 91% | −91 |
| 2019 Week 17 | @ Broncos | L 15–16 | 87% | −87 |
| 2021 Week 9 | @ Giants | L 16–23 | 87% | −87 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs Bears | L 24–25 | 82% | −82 |
| 2022 Week 14 | @ Rams | L 16–17 | 81% | −81 |
