luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Raiders at Ravens, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Raiders stole one. They beat the Ravens 26–23, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 7.2 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 75% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:03 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 16 yards, worth 17 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 26
Baltimore Ravens 23

September 15, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −9

Luck index +84 Raiders very lucky · −84 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 LV 31 BAL 19
  2. 2 LV 24 BAL 21
  3. 3 LV 15 BAL 16
  4. 4 LV 13 BAL 17
  5. 5 LV 13 BAL 20
  6. 6 LV 16 BAL 26
  7. 7 LV 19 BAL 33
  8. 8 LV 13 BAL 31
  9. 9 LV 13 BAL 37
  10. 10 LV 9 BAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 16% of them, Ravens 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+1.5%
Raiders by 9–164.3%
Raiders by 1–89.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Ravens by 1–824.1%
Ravens by 9–1621.0%
Ravens by 17+38.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 6.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • D. Carlson, 53 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Tucker, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Tucker, 56 yds missed · 63% expected
  • D. Carlson, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Tucker, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:21 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% BAL BAL: Field goal
2 Q2 2:30 J. Tucker missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 52 of 69 from 45+ before +10% LV BAL: Field goal
3 Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 28 flags in 4758 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +11% LV LV: Field goal
4 Q2 1:44 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +11% BAL LV: Field goal
5 Q3 3:22 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +13% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3001 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +17% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:31 D. Carlson made 38-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +16% LV –
8 Q4 0:01 The Ravens converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedIllegal Forward Pass on the Ravens (Justice Hill), 0 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1795 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 +9% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Malcolm Koonce (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 15% · Ravens 85%

Final margin
Raiders by 3
Luck in points
9.8 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 16% · Ravens 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Raiders · Ravens

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