luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Bears at Texans, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Bears 19–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Texans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:19 left): Defensive Holding on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 13
Houston Texans 19

September 15, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −6

Luck index +52 Texans lucky · −52 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 5, Texans win 5.

  1. 1 CHI 30 HOU 7
  2. 2 CHI 19 HOU 6
  3. 3 CHI 22 HOU 13
  4. 4 CHI 20 HOU 16
  5. 5 CHI 19 HOU 17
  6. 6 CHI 23 HOU 25
  7. 7 CHI 27 HOU 34
  8. 8 CHI 20 HOU 30
  9. 9 CHI 10 HOU 25
  10. 10 CHI 0 HOU 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 52% of them, Texans 48%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+10.1%
Bears by 9–1615.8%
Bears by 1–822.5%
Level after regulation5.2%
Texans by 1–821.2%
Texans by 9–1615.6%
Texans by 17+9.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Bears: the final margin was Texans by 6, without the luck Texans by 11.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 56 yds made · 67% expected
  • C. Santos, 53 yds made · 72% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 59 yds made · 64% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 53 yds made · 71% expected
  • C. Santos, 54 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 9 for 60 yards, Texans 12 for 115 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:56 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.7 pts
Q1 3:51 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Kris Boyd), 10 yards 0% CHI +0.6 pts
Q1 0:11 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Nico Collins), 15 yards +3% CHI +1.4 pts
Q2 6:58 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 1:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Calen Bullock), 24 yards +8% CHI +2.8 pts
Q2 1:11 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.4 pts
Q2 1:07 False Start on the Bears (Marcedes Lewis), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 0:32 Illegal Formation on the Bears (Amen Ogbongbemiga), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 0:09 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.6 pts
Q3 11:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Jalen Pitre), 6 yards 0% CHI +0.4 pts
Q3 9:38 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Kris Boyd), 10 yards +2% CHI +0.6 pts
Q3 9:13 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q3 9:08 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Elijah Hicks), 10 yards +4% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 8:56 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 8:19 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 5 yards, wiping out the play +16% CHI +4.5 pts
Q3 7:26 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 3:02 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Folorunso Fatukasi), 5 yards +3% CHI +0.8 pts
Q3 1:58 Offensive Holding on the Bears (D'Andre Swift), 10 yards +4% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 4:11 Intentional Grounding on the Bears (Caleb Williams), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 4:07 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Mario Edwards), 15 yards +5% CHI +1.8 pts
Q4 1:57 Illegal Use of Hands on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% CHI +1.5 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:54 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +6% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q1 9:08 The Bears converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% CHI CHI: Field goal
3 Q1 2:27 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:51 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
5 Q2 4:33 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% CHI HOU: Punt
6 Q2 2:28 The Bears converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +6% CHI CHI: Touchdown
7 Q3 8:19 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 735 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +16% CHI CHI: Punt
8 Q4 1:11 G. Everett dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 138 catchable balls before this +10% HOU CHI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Juice Scruggs (HOU C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Scales (CHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 6% · Texans 94%

Final margin
Texans by 6
Luck in points
5.7 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 11.7
Replay with same day's form
Bears 52% · Texans 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Bears · Texans

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