luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Bears at Texans, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Bears 19–13, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.0 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:19 left): Defensive Holding on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 13
Houston Texans 19

September 15, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −6

Luck index +51 Texans lucky · −51 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 5, Texans win 5.

  1. 1 CHI 27 HOU 6
  2. 2 CHI 15 HOU 0
  3. 3 CHI 27 HOU 17
  4. 4 CHI 23 HOU 17
  5. 5 CHI 19 HOU 17
  6. 6 CHI 12 HOU 13
  7. 7 CHI 12 HOU 16
  8. 8 CHI 27 HOU 36
  9. 9 CHI 0 HOU 15
  10. 10 CHI 10 HOU 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 51% of them, Texans 49%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+10.2%
Bears by 9–1616.2%
Bears by 1–821.6%
Level after regulation5.6%
Texans by 1–822.1%
Texans by 9–1614.2%
Texans by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 16.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • C. Santos, 53 yds made · 71% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 59 yds made · 61% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 53 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. Santos, 54 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:08 The Bears converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% CHI CHI: Field goal
2 Q1 6:47 The Bears converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +9% CHI CHI: Field goal
3 Q1 1:40 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:51 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
5 Q2 0:35 The Bears converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q3 8:19 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 735 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +16% CHI CHI: Punt
7 Q3 4:11 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% CHI HOU: Punt
8 Q4 1:11 G. Everett dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 138 catchable balls before this +15% HOU CHI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Juice Scruggs (HOU C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Scales (CHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 4% · Texans 96%

Final margin
Texans by 6
Luck in points
10.5 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 16.5
Replay with same day's form
Bears 51% · Texans 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Bears · Texans

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