luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Buccaneers at Lions, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers stole one. They beat the Lions 20–16, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.5 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Lions were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:01 left): the Lions were stopped on 4th & 8, worth 39 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Detroit Lions 16

September 15, 2024 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −7.5

Luck index +82 Buccaneers very lucky · −82 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 2, Lions win 8.

  1. 1 TB 12 DET 0
  2. 2 TB 16 DET 13
  3. 3 TB 23 DET 26
  4. 4 TB 6 DET 10
  5. 5 TB 17 DET 24
  6. 6 TB 6 DET 16
  7. 7 TB 14 DET 27
  8. 8 TB 6 DET 24
  9. 9 TB 17 DET 40
  10. 10 TB 10 DET 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 18% of them, Lions 82%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+1.5%
Buccaneers by 9–165.3%
Buccaneers by 1–811.0%
Level after regulation2.6%
Lions by 1–825.7%
Lions by 9–1621.1%
Lions by 17+32.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 4.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Bates, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Bates, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Bates, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 76 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +13% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q2 2:00 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% DET TB: Punt
3 Q4 9:22 The Lions converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +17% DET DET: Turnover
4 Q4 7:41 The Lions were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% TB DET: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 3:10 The Lions converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% DET DET: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:23 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +25% DET DET: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:01 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +39% TB DET: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:06 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +20% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 67% · Lions 33%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 4
Luck in points
0.1 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 4.1
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 18% · Lions 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Buccaneers · Lions

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