2024 season · final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2024: game by game

The Buccaneers went 10–7 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.8 wins. Luck cost them 0.8: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.5.

Every game

How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Commanders	W 37–20	69%	+31
Week 2	@ Lions	W 20–16	18%	+82
Week 3	vs Broncos	L 7–26	45%	−45
Week 4	vs Eagles	W 33–16	85%	+15
Week 5	@ Falcons	L 30–36	31%	−31
Week 6	@ Saints	W 51–27	92%	+8
Week 7	vs Ravens	L 31–41	56%	−56
Week 8	vs Falcons	L 26–31	18%	−18
Week 9	@ Chiefs	L 24–30	47%	−47
Week 10	vs 49ers	L 20–23	16%	−16
Week 12	@ Giants	W 30–7	91%	+9
Week 13	@ Panthers	W 26–23	78%	+22
Week 14	vs Raiders	W 28–13	95%	+5
Week 15	@ Chargers	W 40–17	94%	+6
Week 16	@ Cowboys	L 24–26	62%	−62
Week 17	vs Panthers	W 48–14	100%	0
Week 18	vs Saints	W 27–19	86%	+14
Wild Card	vs Commanders	L 20–23	53%	−53

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +31 vs WAS

Wk 2 +82 @ DET

Wk 3 −45 vs DEN

Wk 4 +15 vs PHI

Wk 5 −31 @ ATL

Wk 6 +8 @ NO

Wk 7 −56 vs BAL

Wk 8 −18 vs ATL

Wk 9 −47 @ KC

Wk 10 −16 vs SF

Wk 12 +9 @ NYG

Wk 13 +22 @ CAR

Wk 14 +5 vs LV

Wk 15 +6 @ LAC

Wk 16 −62 @ DAL

Wk 17 0 vs CAR

Wk 18 +14 vs NO

Wild Card −53 vs WAS

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Kicks	+28.1	+1.66
Judgment calls	+19.0	+1.12
Fumble bounces	+17.3	+1.02
3rd & 4th downs	+10.3	+0.61
Injuries	+9.3	+0.55
Rest	−1.2	−0.07
Drops	−8.2	−0.48