2024 season · final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2024: game by game
The Buccaneers went 10–7 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.7.
Every game
How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Commanders | W 37–20 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 2 | @ Lions | W 20–16 | 16% | +84 |
| Week 3 | vs Broncos | L 7–26 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 4 | vs Eagles | W 33–16 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 5 | @ Falcons | L 30–36 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 6 | @ Saints | W 51–27 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 7 | vs Ravens | L 31–41 | 46% | −46 |
| Week 8 | vs Falcons | L 26–31 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 9 | @ Chiefs | L 24–30 | 46% | −46 |
| Week 10 | vs 49ers | L 20–23 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 12 | @ Giants | W 30–7 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 13 | @ Panthers | W 26–23 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 14 | vs Raiders | W 28–13 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 15 | @ Chargers | W 40–17 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 16 | @ Cowboys | L 24–26 | 63% | −63 |
| Week 17 | vs Panthers | W 48–14 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 18 | vs Saints | W 27–19 | 87% | +13 |
| Wild Card | vs Commanders | L 20–23 | 67% | −67 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.74 | +22.9 |
| Kicks | +0.66 | +28.4 |
| Judgment calls | +0.19 | +8.5 |
| Injuries | +0.14 | +6.8 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.04 | +13.1 |
| Drops | −0.48 | −7.1 |