One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Buccaneers in one-score games

The Buccaneers are 0–2 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 6–6 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.6 of those 2. Since 2019: 30–30 in 60 one-score games, 32.5 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Buccaneers win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.6 0–2

2025 −0.4 6–6

2024 −0.6 3–5

2023 +1.1 3–4

2022 +0.3 6–4

2021 +1.1 6–0

2020 −0.4 3–3

2019 −3.0 3–6

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	0–2	0.6 of 2	−0.6	0–2
2025	6–6	6.4 of 12	−0.4	8–9
2024	3–5	3.6 of 8	−0.6	10–7
2023	3–4	1.9 of 7	+1.1	9–8
2022	6–4	5.7 of 10	+0.3	8–9
2021	6–0	4.9 of 6	+1.1	13–4
2020	3–3	3.4 of 6	−0.4	11–5
2019	3–6	6.0 of 9	−3.0	7–9

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Bengals	L 27–33	4%	−4
Week 2	vs Browns	L 19–23	57%	−57

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers, every season