One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer
The Buccaneers in one-score games
The Buccaneers are 1–6 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 6–6 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 1.3 of those 7. Since 2019: 31–34 in 65 one-score games, 33.6 wins in replays.
A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.
Close-game luck by season
One-score wins minus how many of those games the Buccaneers win in replays (regular season).
2026 one-score games
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bengals | L 27–33 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 2 | vs Browns | L 19–23 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 3 | vs Vikings | L 16–23 | 27% | −27 |
| Week 4 | vs Packers | L 14–17 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 5 | @ Cowboys | W 24–16 | 4% | +96 |
| Week 6 | vs Steelers | L 19–26 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 9 | @ Bears | L 24–27 | 27% | −27 |
Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers, every season