luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Vikings at Buccaneers, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Buccaneers 23–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:03 left): Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 7 yards, wiping out the play, worth 40 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

September 27, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −1.5

Luck index +26 Vikings lucky · −26 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 7, Buccaneers win 3.

  1. 1 MIN 25 TB 0
  2. 2 MIN 24 TB 6
  3. 3 MIN 27 TB 12
  4. 4 MIN 15 TB 3
  5. 5 MIN 16 TB 6
  6. 6 MIN 26 TB 20
  7. 7 MIN 24 TB 22
  8. 8 MIN 17 TB 20
  9. 9 MIN 16 TB 23
  10. 10 MIN 12 TB 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 74% of them, Buccaneers 26%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+24.8%
Vikings by 9–1621.0%
Vikings by 1–825.2%
Level after regulation3.4%
Buccaneers by 1–814.0%
Buccaneers by 9–168.2%
Buccaneers by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.9 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 7, without the luck Buccaneers by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 54 yds made · 70% expected
  • W. Reichard, 56 yds made · 67% expected
  • W. Reichard, 43 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 9 for 95 yards, Buccaneers 8 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:33 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +6% TB +1.3 pts
Q1 9:00 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Vikings, 15 yards +4% TB +1.4 pts
Q1 7:14 Face Mask on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 15 yards +1% TB +1.1 pts
Q1 5:50 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 11 yards +4% TB +1.4 pts
Q2 14:11 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q2 7:56 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +4% MIN +1.8 pts
Q2 7:31 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% MIN +1.1 pts
Q2 4:11 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Miles Killebrew), 10 yards +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q3 7:00 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 4:28 Chop Block on the Buccaneers (Bucky Irving), 14 yards, wiping out the play +7% MIN +2.7 pts
Q3 4:03 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 7 yards, wiping out the play +40% MIN +8.9 pts
Q4 14:06 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Alex Anzalone), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.2 pts
Q4 12:02 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Payne Durham), 10 yards, wiping out the play +15% MIN +2.0 pts
Q4 10:49 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Josh Metellus), 15 yards +8% TB +1.8 pts
Q4 9:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Kevin Knowles), 15 yards +6% MIN +1.3 pts
Q4 4:02 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 9 yards +4% TB +0.7 pts
Q4 3:58 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings, 10 yards +10% TB +0.9 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:00 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Vikings, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +15% MIN TB: Touchdown
2 Q2 4:17 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:10 J. Addison dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 203 catchable balls before this +8% TB MIN: Punt
4 Q3 4:03 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +40% MIN MIN: Punt
5 Q4 12:02 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Payne Durham), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1475 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +15% MIN MIN: Field goal
6 Q4 3:58 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedIllegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings, 10 yardsJudgment calls +10% TB MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 1:54 The Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +10% MIN TB: Turnover
8 Q4 0:08 The Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +21% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josiah Trotter (TB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Brett Thorson (MIN P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 35% · Buccaneers 65%

Final margin
Vikings by 7
Luck in points
9.9 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 74% · Buccaneers 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Vikings · Buccaneers

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