luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 28, 2026

Eagles at Bears, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Eagles 27–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Eagles: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 60% favorites.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 7
Chicago Bears 27

September 28, 2026 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Eagles −3.5

Luck index +5 Bears about even · −5 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Bears win 9.

  1. 1 PHI 19 CHI 14
  2. 2 PHI 14 CHI 17
  3. 3 PHI 17 CHI 23
  4. 4 PHI 13 CHI 21
  5. 5 PHI 10 CHI 20
  6. 6 PHI 16 CHI 29
  7. 7 PHI 7 CHI 23
  8. 8 PHI 0 CHI 19
  9. 9 PHI 7 CHI 30
  10. 10 PHI 3 CHI 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Eagles

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.

45 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.09 worse by 0.07
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.05 worse by 0.02
Bears offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.13 worse by 0.06
Bears defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.12 better by 0.10

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 5% of them, Bears 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+0.1%
Eagles by 9–160.9%
Eagles by 1–83.9%
Level after regulation0.7%
Bears by 1–814.9%
Bears by 9–1623.1%
Bears by 17+56.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 20, without the luck Bears by 15.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Santos, 48 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 10 for 61 yards, Bears 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:01 Intentional Grounding on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 10 yards +2% CHI +0.9 pts
Q1 3:31 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Riq Woolen), 5 yards +1% CHI +0.3 pts
Q1 1:46 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% CHI +2.7 pts
Q1 0:26 False Start on the Bears (D'Andre Swift), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.5 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Riq Woolen), 5 yards +3% CHI +1.3 pts
Q2 13:59 False Start on the Eagles, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.4 pts
Q2 12:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Cameron Lewis), 21 yards +4% PHI +1.4 pts
Q3 5:47 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Bears (Cairo Santos), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q3 3:30 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.9 pts
Q3 2:45 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 10 yards +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q4 12:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Moro Ojomo), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +2.5 pts
Q4 9:14 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Andrew Mukuba), 5 yards +1% CHI +1.3 pts
Q4 9:14 False Start on the Bears (Rome Odunze), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q4 7:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears, 15 yards 0% PHI +1.4 pts
Q4 6:26 False Start on the Eagles (E.J. Jenkins), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.7 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:33 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +6% PHI CHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:52 The Bears converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +5% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:46 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 1:15 The Eagles fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% CHI PHI: Turnover
5 Q2 14:02 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% PHI CHI: Field goal
6 Q2 6:21 The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws +4% CHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:24 The Bears converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% CHI CHI: Field goal
8 Q3 10:26 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% PHI CHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Caleb Williams (CHI QB), out, replaced by c.keenum · 4.2 pts
  • Ozzy Trapilo (CHI OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Fred Johnson (PHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 0% · Bears 100%

Final margin
Bears by 20
Luck in points
4.5 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 15.5
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 5% · Bears 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Eagles · Bears

More from Week 3 2026