luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Chicago Bears, 2026: game by game

The Bears went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.2 wins. Luck cost them 0.2: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.

Every game

How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Panthers W 59–37 76% +25
Week 2 vs Vikings L 3–9 45% −45

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bears’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
3rd & 4th downs+3.9+1.97
Injuries+1.8+0.89
Judgment calls−0.4−0.18
Drops−2.3−1.15
Kicks−3.3−1.63