2026 season · in progress
Chicago Bears, 2026: game by game
The Bears went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.2 wins. Luck cost them 0.2: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.
Every game
How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Panthers | W 59–37 | 76% | +25 |
| Week 2 | vs Vikings | L 3–9 | 45% | −45 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bears’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +3.9 | +1.97 |
| Injuries | +1.8 | +0.89 |
| Judgment calls | −0.4 | −0.18 |
| Drops | −2.3 | −1.15 |
| Kicks | −3.3 | −1.63 |