One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Bears in one-score games

The Bears are 0–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 7–4 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.5 of those 1. Since 2019: 28–38 in 66 one-score games, 20.2 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Bears win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.5 0–1

2025 +3.2 7–4

2024 +1.0 3–7

2023 −0.9 2–6

2022 −1.5 1–7

2021 −0.1 3–3

2020 +3.3 6–5

2019 +3.4 6–5

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	0–1	0.5 of 1	−0.5	1–1
2025	7–4	3.8 of 11	+3.2	11–6
2024	3–7	2.0 of 10	+1.0	5–12
2023	2–6	2.9 of 8	−0.9	7–10
2022	1–7	2.5 of 8	−1.5	3–14
2021	3–3	3.1 of 6	−0.1	6–11
2020	6–5	2.7 of 11	+3.3	8–8
2019	6–5	2.6 of 11	+3.4	8–8

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	vs Vikings	L 3–9	45%	−45

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Chicago Bears, every season