One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer
The Bears in one-score games
The Bears are 3–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 7–4 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.3 of those 4. Since 2019: 31–38 in 69 one-score games, 22.2 wins in replays.
A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.
Close-game luck by season
One-score wins minus how many of those games the Bears win in replays (regular season).
2026 one-score games
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 | vs Vikings | L 3–9 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 6 | @ Falcons | W 31–23 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 7 | vs Patriots | W 30–24 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 9 | vs Buccaneers | W 27–24 | 73% | +27 |
Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Chicago Bears, every season