2024 season · final
Chicago Bears, 2024: game by game
The Bears went 5–12 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–7.
Every game
How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Titans | W 24–17 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 2 | @ Texans | L 13–19 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 3 | @ Colts | L 16–21 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 4 | vs Rams | W 24–18 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 5 | vs Panthers | W 36–10 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 6 | vs Jaguars | W 35–16 | 93% | +8 |
| Week 8 | @ Commanders | L 15–18 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 9 | @ Cardinals | L 9–29 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 10 | vs Patriots | L 3–19 | 42% | −42 |
| Week 11 | vs Packers | L 19–20 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 12 | vs Vikings | L 27–30 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 13 | @ Lions | L 20–23 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 14 | @ 49ers | L 13–38 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 15 | @ Vikings | L 12–30 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 16 | vs Lions | L 17–34 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 17 | vs Seahawks | L 3–6 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 18 | @ Packers | W 24–22 | 1% | +99 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bears’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.37 | +2.3 |
| Injuries | +0.24 | +8.8 |
| Kicks | +0.06 | −5.6 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.02 | +6.7 |
| Drops | −0.10 | +0.2 |
| Judgment calls | −0.17 | +5.3 |