Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024
Patriots at Bears, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?
The Patriots beat the Bears 19–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Patriots.
Before kickoff the Bears were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:08 left): D. Douglas dropped a catchable pass, worth 8 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 New England Patriots | 19 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Patriots lucky · −42 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Patriots win 6, Bears win 4.
- 1 NE 28 CHI 6
- 2 NE 19 CHI 3
- 3 NE 34 CHI 23
- 4 NE 25 CHI 17
- 5 NE 13 CHI 9
- 6 NE 14 CHI 12
- 7 NE 10 CHI 12
- 8 NE 17 CHI 22
- 9 NE 17 CHI 27
- 10 NE 6 CHI 23
Your call
Did the Patriots earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Patriots win 58% of them, Bears 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Patriots by 17+ | 13.9% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 17.5% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 25.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 12.9% |
| Bears by 17+ | 5.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 30 yds made · 96% expected
- C. Santos, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Slye, 37 yds made · 91% expected
- J. Slye, 25 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Slye, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Patriots 7 for 40 yards, Bears 5 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:31 | Illegal Touch Pass on the Patriots (K.J. Osborn), 0 yards | 0% CHI 0.0 pts |
| Q1 6:19 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Patriots, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI 0.0 pts |
| Q2 10:59 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:02 | Defensive Offside on the Bears (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NE +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:58 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CHI +2.3 pts |
| Q3 9:09 | False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:00 | Illegal Formation on the Patriots (Joe Giles-Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:19 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NE +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:49 | Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Kayshon Boutte), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% CHI +1.8 pts |
| Q4 5:36 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NE +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:00 | False Start on the Bears (Keenan Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NE +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:07 | Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Jahlani Tavai), 15 yards | 0% CHI +1.3 pts |
Patriots penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:28 | The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% NE | NE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:59 | The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +7% NE | NE: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 6:31 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedIllegal Touch Pass on the Patriots (K.J. Osborn), 0 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2861 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +5% CHI | NE: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 12:08 | D. Douglas dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 92 catchable balls before this | +8% CHI | NE: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:11 | The Bears converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 0:01 | J. Slye made a 37-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +6% CHI | NE: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 10:58 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 1:20 | The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% NE | NE: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Darnell Wright (CHI T), out · 1.1 pts
- Braxton Jones (CHI T), out · 0.7 pts
- Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
- Andrew Billings (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Kyle Dugger (NE FS), out · 0.5 pts
- David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Patriots 99% · Bears 1%
- Final margin
- Patriots by 16
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for the Patriots
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Patriots by 12.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Patriots 58% · Bears 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · 
Patriots · 
Bears
More from Week 10 2024
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 35–34 · replay 78% for the winner
- Giants vs Panthers CAR 20–17 · replay 24% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 20–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Bills at Colts BUF 30–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 16–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Vikings at Jaguars MIN 12–7 · replay 78% for the winner
- Steelers at Commanders PIT 28–27 · replay 5% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 23–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Titans at Chargers LAC 27–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jets at Cardinals ARI 31–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys PHI 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lions at Texans DET 26–23 · replay 56% for the winner
- Dolphins at Rams MIA 23–15 · replay 28% for the winner