luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Patriots at Bears, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Bears 19–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.0 points to the Bears.

An off day for the Bears: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bears were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:08 left): D. Douglas dropped a catchable pass, worth 9 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

New England Patriots 19
Chicago Bears 3

November 10, 2024 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −6.5

Luck index +23 Patriots about even · −23 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 8, Bears win 2.

  1. 1 NE 30 CHI 6
  2. 2 NE 28 CHI 10
  3. 3 NE 21 CHI 6
  4. 4 NE 16 CHI 3
  5. 5 NE 26 CHI 17
  6. 6 NE 13 CHI 6
  7. 7 NE 10 CHI 6
  8. 8 NE 9 CHI 7
  9. 9 NE 13 CHI 16
  10. 10 NE 0 CHI 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bears

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.

37 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.01 better by 0.13
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed −0.39 +0.08 better by 0.47
Bears offenseEPA per play gained −0.39 +0.04 worse by 0.43
Bears defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.07 worse by 0.06

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 77% of them, Bears 23%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+27.8%
Patriots by 9–1622.3%
Patriots by 1–827.1%
Level after regulation1.9%
Bears by 1–812.8%
Bears by 9–166.7%
Bears by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 15.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Santos, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Slye, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:59 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% NE NE: Field goal
2 Q1 2:42 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% NE CHI: Punt
3 Q2 12:08 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedD. Douglas dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 92 catchable balls before this +9% CHI NE: Punt
4 Q2 10:11 The Bears converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% CHI CHI: Field goal
5 Q2 6:02 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% NE NE: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:00 The Patriots converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:01 J. Slye made 37-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +6% CHI NE: Punt
8 Q4 14:19 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% NE CHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Darnell Wright (CHI T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Braxton Jones (CHI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Billings (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kyle Dugger (NE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 100% · Bears 0%

Final margin
Patriots by 16
Luck in points
0.3 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 15.7
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 77% · Bears 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Patriots · Bears

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